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依赖中国需求的全球企业准备过冬

更新时间:2015-8-28 9:02:20 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

China Falters, and the Global Economy Is Forced to Adapt
依赖中国需求的全球企业准备过冬

The commodities giant BHP Billiton spent heavily for years, mining iron ore across Australia, digging for copper in Chile, and pumping oil off the coast of Trinidad. The company could be confident in its direction as commodities orders surged from its biggest and best customer, China.

大宗商品巨头必和必拓(BHP Billiton)公司多年来投了大笔资金,在澳大利亚各地开采铁矿石,在智利挖掘铜矿,还在特立尼达沿海钻井采油。只要来自公司最大、最好的客户中国的大宗商品订单源源不断,必和必拓就能对自己的未来充满信心。

Now, BHP is pulling back, faced with a slowing Chinese economy that will no longer be the same dominant force in commodities. Profit is falling and the company is cutting its investment spending budget by more than two-thirds.

如今,必和必拓在打退堂鼓。由于中国经济放缓,中国将不再像过去那样是大宗商品的主导力量。必和必拓的利润在下降,公司也在削减投资支出,把这方面的预算降低了三分之二以上。

China’s rapid growth over the last decade reshaped the world economy, creating a powerful driver of corporate strategies, financial markets and geopolitical decisions. China seemed to have a one-way trajectory, momentum that would provide a steady source of profit and capital.

中国经济在过去十年的快速增长改变了世界经济体系,也为企业战略、金融市场,以及地缘政治决策创造了一种强大的推动力。中国经济似乎只朝着一个方向走,这种势头为利润和资本提供了稳定的来源。

But deepening economic fears about China, which culminated this week in a global market rout, are now forcing a broad rethinking of the conventional wisdom. Even as markets show signs of stabilizing, the resulting shock waves could be lasting, by exposing a new reality that China is no longer a sure bet.

但是,人们对中国经济的担忧正在加深,这种担忧充分表现在本周的全球股市震荡上,也在迫使人们对传统观念作一次广泛的反思。即使股市表现出趋稳迹象,但震荡所产生的冲击波可能是持久的,因为暴露出一个新的现实,那就是中国经济已不再是一个可靠的赌注。

China, while still a large and pervasive presence in the global economy, is now exporting uncertainty around the world with the potential for choppier growth and volatile swings. The tectonic shift is forcing a gut check in industries that have built their strategies and plotted their profits around China’s rise.

虽然中国仍在全球经济中占有很大且无所不在的地位,但中国也在向世界各地出口不确定性,给全球经济增长带来了起伏不定、出现巨幅波动的可能性。这种结构性变化迫使那些曾把发展策略和牟利建立在中国崛起之上的行业,对自己进行一次彻头彻尾的检查。

Industrial and commodity multinationals face the most pressing concerns, as they scramble to stem the profit slide from weaker consumption. Caterpillar cut back factory production, with sales of construction equipment in China dropping by half in the first six months of the year.

工业产品和大宗商品的跨国公司面临最紧迫的问题,因为他们要对付需求疲软所带来的利润下滑问题。卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)削减了工厂产能,公司向中国出售的建筑设备今年上半年已减少了一半。

Smartphone makers, automobile manufacturers and retailers wonder about the staying power of Chinese buyers, even if it is not shaking their bottom line at this point. General Motors and Ford factories have been shipping fewer cars to Chinese dealerships this summer.

智能手机制造商、汽车制造商,以及零售商都在琢磨中国买家的持久力,虽然这些行业的利润还未受到影响。通用汽车公司和福特汽车公司的工厂今年夏天已经减少了向中国经销商的发货量。

It is not just companies reassessing their assumptions. Russia had been turning to China to fill the financial gap left by low oil prices and Western sanctions. Venezuela, Nigeria and Ukraine have been heavily dependent on investments and low-cost loans from China.

正在重新评估自身战略的不仅仅是企业。俄罗斯为了弥补因低油价和西方制裁所造成的财政缺口也曾一度转向中国。委内瑞拉、尼日利亚和乌克兰一直严重依赖来自中国的投资和低息贷款。

The pain has been particularly acute for Brazil. The country is already faltering, as weaker Chinese imports of minerals and soybeans have jolted all of Latin America. The uncertainty over China could limit the maneuvering room for officials to address the sluggish Brazilian economy at a time when resentment is festering over proposed austerity measures.

巴西的经济痛苦尤为严重。随着中国对进口矿石和大豆的需求减少,整个拉丁美洲经济出现震荡,而巴西经济已处于崩溃的边缘。在民众对紧缩措施提案不满日益恶化的同时,中国经济所带来的不确定性,可能会缩小官员在应对低迷的巴西经济问题上的回旋余地。

The weakness in China is even compelling officials at the United States Federal Reserve to think more globally, as they consider raising interest rates. William C. Dudley, the president of the New York Fed, said on Wednesday that a September rate increase looked less likely than it did a few weeks ago.

中国的经济疲软甚至也迫使美国联邦储备官员们在考虑加息时更加立足于全球。纽约联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of New York)行长威廉·C·达德利(William C. Dudley)周三表示,9月份加息的可能性看来比几周前认为的要小。

“The entire world is focusing now on China, watching this crisis unfold,” Armando Monteiro Neto, Brazil’s minister of development and foreign trade, told reporters on Tuesday in Brasília. “Brazil is already feeling the effects of China’s deceleration. If the situation gets worse, the impact will get bigger.”

“现在全世界都在关注中国,看这场危机如何展开,”巴西发展、工业和贸易部长阿曼多·蒙泰罗·内托(Armando Monteiro Neto)周二在巴西利亚对记者说。“巴西已经受到中国经济减速的影响。如果情况恶化,影响将会更大。”

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