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中国股灾热点问题解答

更新时间:2015-7-9 19:38:30 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

The Chinese stock market rout in recent weeks has prompted the country’s government to act aggressively to stop the slide. If stocks continue to fall, that could erode consumer confidence in China and slow further the country’s already weakening economy, which would have painful implications for the global economy.

中国股市近几周的崩溃已促使政府采取积极措施以阻止下滑。如果股票继续下跌,将损害中国消费者的信心并使已然减速的经济增长进一步放缓,而这对于全球经济将影响惨痛。

What has happened?

发生了什么?

Chinese stocks have surged almost unimpeded, more than doubling in the 12 months ending June 12. Millions of working-class and middle-class Chinese families bet heavily on stocks, often borrowing money to do so and further spurring the rise.

中国股市曾一路飙升,在6月12日之前的一年里上涨了超过一倍。数百万中国的工薪阶层和中产阶级对股市下了重注,经常借钱炒股,而这也进一步刺激了上涨。

But the rally defied fundamentals, prompting concerns of a bubble. Stocks rose even as the Chinese economy was slowing. While foreigners and domestic institutions bought shares in large companies with fairly stable businesses, working-class and middle-class families mainly bought inexpensive shares in small and medium-size companies, and kept buying these shares simply because they were rising. Weak balance sheets and chronic problems with corporate governance at many of these companies were swept aside.

但上涨与经济基本面并不相符,催生了对于泡沫的担忧。股票在中国经济增速放缓之时仍在上涨。当外国投资者和国内的机构购买经营稳定的大型公司股票时,工薪阶层和中产阶级家庭购买价格较低的中小型公司股票,并因为这些股票的价格在上涨而不断购入。许多这些公司脆弱的资产负债表和长期的公司管理问题被搁置一边。

In recent months, the Chinese stocks have experienced brief periods of weakness, as investors started to grow concerned that the market was getting overheated. The government, though, has regularly reassured investors, helping to steady the markets.

最近几个月,中国股市经历了短暂的虚弱期,因为投资者对于市场过热的忧虑开始增加。即便如此,政府仍频繁地安抚投资者以稳定市场。

Now, investors are losing faith. After a drop of more than 7 percent in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on June 26, the Chinese central bank responded the next day with an interest rate cut, saying it was acting to shore up the economy. A broad slide in stocks continued, prompting the government to take aggressive action.

现在,投资者失去了信心。在6月26日沪深两市大跌超过7%后,中国的中央银行在第二天以下调利率作为回应,称这是为了提振经济。但股市持续大规模下跌,促使政府采取积极的行动。

What is China doing about the sell-off?

对于股价下跌,中国正在如何应对?

Since June 25, the Chinese government has tried a series of policy measures to halt the slide. It has cut interest rates, made more loans available to buyers of stocks and promised to investigate anyone involved in market manipulation.

自6月25日起,中国政府已经采取了一系列政策措施以阻止下跌。政府降低了利率,增加了投资者可获得的贷款,并承诺调查任何涉嫌操纵市场的人。

The government made its boldest move on July 4, orchestrating a plan for 21 brokerages to put $19.4 billion in a fund to buy the shares of large companies. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges suspended 28 pending initial public offerings and said that all deposits paid for shares would be returned to the would-be buyers, freeing up cash that could be invested in existing stocks. Government agencies announced on July 5 that they would lend money to brokerages so that the brokerages could lend the money to investors who wanted to buy shares.

政府在7月4日采取了最为勇敢的举措,策划了一项计划,将21家证券公司将出资194亿美元(1200亿人民币)建立基金购买大型公司的股票。上海和深圳证券交易所暂停了28个新股的发行计划,并称将向未来的购买者退还所有已支付的定金,以释放更多现金投入到现有的股票中。政府机构还在7月5日宣布将向证券公司提供贷款,之后证券公司将可以向有意愿购买股票的投资者提供资金。

Following the move, large company shares held most of their value on July 6. But the shares of small and medium-size companies, widely held by retail investors, kept falling.

救市举措之后,大部分大型公司的股票价格在7月6日止跌。但大量散户投资者持有的中小型公司股票仍持续下跌。

How exposed are foreign investors?

外国投资者受影响程度如何?

The Chinese markets have only recently started to open up to outside investors, so overseas players are not heavily exposed to the downturn. Such investors own an estimated 4 percent of Chinese shares. And they have been heavily concentrated in large companies, which have not been as volatile as their smaller brethren.

中国股市才刚刚向外国投资者开放,所以海外买家并未受到下跌的严重影响。这类投资者持有大约4%的中国股票。而这些股票高度集中在并不像中小型公司那般不稳定的大型公司。

But stock market routs can quickly spread. The Hong Kong market withstood previous bouts of selling, but fell on July 6 after the Chinese government’s moves. And foreigners have invested heavily in the Hong Kong market, often as a proxy for mainland China.

但是股市的下跌能够很快蔓延。香港股市抵挡住了此前的几轮抛售,但在7月6日政府的行动之后下挫。而且外国投资者在经常作为内地股市代言者的香港股市大量投资。

Will China’s stock market troubles affect the global economy?

中国股市的问题会影响全球经济吗?

Possibly.

这是有可能的。

China has the world’s second-largest economy. It is the biggest importer of commodities, from countries like Australia and Brazil. China is also a huge buyer of factory equipment and other machinery in Germany and other places. If the Chinese stock market slump damages consumer confidence, it could lead to a slowdown in those purchases.

中国是世界第二大经济体,也是澳大利亚和巴西等国商品的最大进口国。中国也是德国以及其他国家重要的工厂设备和其他机械的买家。如果中国股市的下跌损害了消费者信心,这将导致此类采购的减缓。

The stock market weakness, should it spread to the Chinese economy over the long term, could prompt Beijing to reassess its overseas loans and investments. Many countries, industries and companies have come to depend on Chinese money to fund their own growth. But Chinese outbound investment could still increase if companies and individuals seek safety overseas.

股市的衰弱如果长期蔓延到整个中国经济,可能促使北京重新审视其海外贷款和投资。许多国家的行业和公司的发展都依赖中国的资金。但是如果公司和个人到海外寻求资金安全,中国的境外投资可能还会上升。

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