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中国政府救市措施效果微弱

更新时间:2015-7-8 19:45:52 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Scant Relief From Beijing for Bruised Investors
中国政府救市措施效果微弱

For millions of ordinary Chinese who have borne the brunt as the mainland’s stock market has plummeted in recent weeks, government measures to bolster the market are offering little relief.

中国内地股市近几周来大幅下挫,首当其冲的是数以百万计的普通股民。对于他们来说,政府支撑股市的措施几乎没有起到缓解效果。

Chinese shares fell on Tuesday, with the Shanghai composite index closing down 1.3 percent after a gain on Monday. The Shenzhen index, which covers smaller companies, had another steep drop, down 5.3 percent. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong, which fell sharply on Monday, finished down a more moderate 1 percent on Tuesday.

中国股市周二收跌。上证综合指数在周一拉阳之后,周二收跌1.3%。而由规模较小的公司组成的深证指数继续跳水,周二跌幅达5.3%。香港恒生指数周一遭受重挫,周二跌幅减少为1%。

The state-run news media reported that an increasing number of companies, 200 on Tuesday alone, were filing for a suspension in trading to insulate themselves from the decline. The China Securities Journal reported that 760 companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges had suspended trading in their shares, representing about 27 percent of companies on the two markets.

官方媒体报道,越来越多的公司为了避免跟随大盘下跌而停牌,仅周二就有200家公司采取这种做法。据《中国证券报》报道,在上交所和深交所上市的760家公司中,已经停牌的公司约占总数的27%左右。

The voluntary suspensions, along with rules that automatically halt trading in a company’s stock if it drops 10 percent, combined to keep 44.4 percent of all Chinese stocks from trading for the full session Tuesday. Taking such stocks out of play has probably locked a number of skittish investors into investments they are trying to sell. The hope is that by the time the trading suspensions lift, confidence will have been restored.

这种自愿停牌的做法,以及10%的跌停机制,使得中国股市中44.4%的公司未能自始自终地参与本周二的交易。将此类个股从交易中撤出,可能会让一些短线操作的投资者无法出售想要减仓的股票。公司希望在停牌结束的时候,市场信心已经得到恢复。

Elsewhere in Asia, shares were mixed, reacting to the events in Greece and the volatility in China’s markets. The Nikkei 225 share index in Japan finished 1.3 percent higher, while the Kospi in South Korea fell 0.7 percent. Australian shares rose nearly 2 percent.

在亚洲其他地区,股市涨跌互现,对希腊危机和中国市场波动做出了反应。日本的日经225股指(Nikkei 225)收高1.3%,韩国综合指数(Kospi)下跌0.7%。澳大利亚股市上扬近2%。

For mainland Chinese stocks, the revival of downward momentum on Tuesday suggested that markets were likely to continue falling, said Li-Gang Liu, the chief economist for greater China at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group. In many cases, company valuations, in particular for smaller technology companies listed on the ChiNext market, remain irrationally high, he said.

对于中国内地的股票,本周二的下行行情显示,市场有可能继续走低,澳新银行(Australia and New Zealand Banking Group)大中华区首席经济学家刘利刚(Li-Gang Liu)表示。有很多个股的股价高得离谱,在创业板上市的小型科技企业尤其如此,他说。

Over the weekend, Beijing suspended new stock listings and persuaded a number of large brokerage firms to set up a $19.4 billion stabilization fund to help support the markets. Those moves are not enough to restore confidence, Mr. Liu said.

上周末,官方暂停了新股上市,并说服一些大型券商设立了价值194亿美元(1200亿元人民币)的稳定基金来帮助托市。但这些举措都不足以恢复市场信心,刘利刚说。

“I would think that these kind of price-supporting operations will only have a couple of days’ effect and not much sustaining power in the medium term,” he said. “You should allow the market mechanisms to play out, rather than using administrative measures to support share price at certain levels. All evidence has shown elsewhere this type of operations doesn’t work.”

“我认为这种托市措施的效果只会持续几天,中期来看,不会有持续的效力,”他说。“应该让市场机制慢慢发挥出来,而不是用行政手段把股价支撑在某个水平。其他地方的所有证据都表明,这类做法不起作用。”

Another major problem could arise from where the brokerage firms involved in the stabilization fund are likely to spend the money: on shares in large state-owned firms, whose valuations are more justifiable than those of smaller companies whose stocks have been bid up to irrational prices.

券商参与设立稳定基金的另一个主要问题是,有可能会把钱花在国有大型企业的股份上,因为它们的股价比规模较小的公司更合理一些,后者已经被抬高到了不合理的程度。

“With the public money you can only pick large-cap blue chips, but the valuation bubble is in the small-cap sector, and it’s still unraveling,” said Hao Hong, chief strategist at the Bank of Communications International. “That creates a lot of volatility and a contagion effect. At the moment it’s looking ugly.”

“使用公众资金,就只能选择买进大盘蓝筹股,但股市泡沫来自于小盘股,它们仍然在下跌,”交银国际(Bank of Communications International)首席策略师洪灏说。“这造成了大量波动,还产生了传染效应。目前,这种做法的效果很糟糕。”

Before markets opened on Tuesday, the state media reported remarks by Premier Li Keqiang that China had the confidence and ability to deal with economic challenges and risks. But Mr. Li’s words had little calming effect.

本周二股市开盘之前,官方媒体报道了总理李克强的发言。他表示,中国有信心也有能力应对经济上的挑战和风险。但这番话没有产生多少安抚效果。

Those left footing the bill are individual consumer investors, who make up the bulk of investors in China’s stock markets — in the world’s other major markets, professional institutional investors are more common. Invested in small, overvalued companies, many of these individual investors are taking advantage of government measures to pull out of their holdings and save what money they can, said Mr. Liu, the A.N.Z. economist.

为下跌买单的是散户,他们是中国股市的主力军——在世界其他主要股市上,专业的机构投资者更为常见。很多散户投资了股价被高估的小型公司,目前正在利用政府的托市措施斩仓,尽可能地拿回一些钱,澳新银行经济学家刘利刚表示。

Herald van der Linde, who leads Asia equity strategy for HSBC, said it was important to keep in perspective that the potential losses to most families in China would not be major. As of May, only 15 percent of Chinese family assets were in stocks. “It’s a lot of focus, but it doesn’t mean families are suddenly being bankrupt,” he said.

汇丰银行(HSBC)亚太区证券策略主管林传英(Herald van der Linde)表示,大多数中国家庭都不会遭受严重损失,看到这个大局是很重要。截至今年5月,中国家庭只把15%的资产投入了股市。“虽然受到极大的关注,但并不意味着很多家庭会突然破产,”他说。

Over the past year, as property prices stagnated, many Chinese investors poured into the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Cheered on by state media and supported by cheap loans, investors quickly bid up stock valuations to bubble territory, with price-to-earnings valuations well beyond those of comparable markets elsewhere. Since mid-June, the rout, which many analysts deemed inevitable, has cut nearly $3 trillion in market value from China’s stock market, the second-largest in the world, after the United States market.

在过去一年里,随着楼价的停滞不前,很多中国投资者涌入沪深股市。有了官方媒体的鼓励和低成本的贷款,投资者迅速将股价推高到了泡沫级别,市盈率远远超出其他地方可以对比的市场。很多分析师认为中国股市暴跌不可避免,6月中旬以来,作为仅次于美国的全球第二大股市,中国股市的暴跌已经导致约3万亿美元的市值蒸发。

Even as concerns grew about investors’ borrowing to buy stocks they could not afford, Mr. Liu said he believed the danger from the rout was limited.

尽管投资者借贷炒股的情况令人愈发担忧,但是刘利刚表示,他相信股市暴跌的危险是有限的。

“I don’t think this market has become a systemic risk at the moment, but this is a wake-up call to the policy makers,” he said, adding that the government should do more to bring professional investors into the market and allow market forces to work out bubbles.

他说,“我不认为这个市场已经具有了系统性风险,但对于政策制定者来说,这是一个警钟。”他还指出,政府应该采取更多措施带领专业投资者进入市场,并且靠市场力量来挤出泡沫。

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