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更新时间:2015-7-8 19:45:52 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Scant Relief From Beijing for Bruised Investors

For millions of ordinary Chinese who have borne the brunt as the mainland’s stock market has plummeted in recent weeks, government measures to bolster the market are offering little relief.


Chinese shares fell on Tuesday, with the Shanghai composite index closing down 1.3 percent after a gain on Monday. The Shenzhen index, which covers smaller companies, had another steep drop, down 5.3 percent. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong, which fell sharply on Monday, finished down a more moderate 1 percent on Tuesday.


The state-run news media reported that an increasing number of companies, 200 on Tuesday alone, were filing for a suspension in trading to insulate themselves from the decline. The China Securities Journal reported that 760 companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges had suspended trading in their shares, representing about 27 percent of companies on the two markets.


The voluntary suspensions, along with rules that automatically halt trading in a company’s stock if it drops 10 percent, combined to keep 44.4 percent of all Chinese stocks from trading for the full session Tuesday. Taking such stocks out of play has probably locked a number of skittish investors into investments they are trying to sell. The hope is that by the time the trading suspensions lift, confidence will have been restored.


Elsewhere in Asia, shares were mixed, reacting to the events in Greece and the volatility in China’s markets. The Nikkei 225 share index in Japan finished 1.3 percent higher, while the Kospi in South Korea fell 0.7 percent. Australian shares rose nearly 2 percent.

在亚洲其他地区,股市涨跌互现,对希腊危机和中国市场波动做出了反应。日本的日经225股指(Nikkei 225)收高1.3%,韩国综合指数(Kospi)下跌0.7%。澳大利亚股市上扬近2%。

For mainland Chinese stocks, the revival of downward momentum on Tuesday suggested that markets were likely to continue falling, said Li-Gang Liu, the chief economist for greater China at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group. In many cases, company valuations, in particular for smaller technology companies listed on the ChiNext market, remain irrationally high, he said.

对于中国内地的股票,本周二的下行行情显示,市场有可能继续走低,澳新银行(Australia and New Zealand Banking Group)大中华区首席经济学家刘利刚(Li-Gang Liu)表示。有很多个股的股价高得离谱,在创业板上市的小型科技企业尤其如此,他说。

Over the weekend, Beijing suspended new stock listings and persuaded a number of large brokerage firms to set up a $19.4 billion stabilization fund to help support the markets. Those moves are not enough to restore confidence, Mr. Liu said.


“I would think that these kind of price-supporting operations will only have a couple of days’ effect and not much sustaining power in the medium term,” he said. “You should allow the market mechanisms to play out, rather than using administrative measures to support share price at certain levels. All evidence has shown elsewhere this type of operations doesn’t work.”


Another major problem could arise from where the brokerage firms involved in the stabilization fund are likely to spend the money: on shares in large state-owned firms, whose valuations are more justifiable than those of smaller companies whose stocks have been bid up to irrational prices.


“With the public money you can only pick large-cap blue chips, but the valuation bubble is in the small-cap sector, and it’s still unraveling,” said Hao Hong, chief strategist at the Bank of Communications International. “That creates a lot of volatility and a contagion effect. At the moment it’s looking ugly.”

“使用公众资金,就只能选择买进大盘蓝筹股,但股市泡沫来自于小盘股,它们仍然在下跌,”交银国际(Bank of Communications International)首席策略师洪灏说。“这造成了大量波动,还产生了传染效应。目前,这种做法的效果很糟糕。”

Before markets opened on Tuesday, the state media reported remarks by Premier Li Keqiang that China had the confidence and ability to deal with economic challenges and risks. But Mr. Li’s words had little calming effect.


Those left footing the bill are individual consumer investors, who make up the bulk of investors in China’s stock markets — in the world’s other major markets, professional institutional investors are more common. Invested in small, overvalued companies, many of these individual investors are taking advantage of government measures to pull out of their holdings and save what money they can, said Mr. Liu, the A.N.Z. economist.


Herald van der Linde, who leads Asia equity strategy for HSBC, said it was important to keep in perspective that the potential losses to most families in China would not be major. As of May, only 15 percent of Chinese family assets were in stocks. “It’s a lot of focus, but it doesn’t mean families are suddenly being bankrupt,” he said.

汇丰银行(HSBC)亚太区证券策略主管林传英(Herald van der Linde)表示,大多数中国家庭都不会遭受严重损失,看到这个大局是很重要。截至今年5月,中国家庭只把15%的资产投入了股市。“虽然受到极大的关注,但并不意味着很多家庭会突然破产,”他说。

Over the past year, as property prices stagnated, many Chinese investors poured into the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Cheered on by state media and supported by cheap loans, investors quickly bid up stock valuations to bubble territory, with price-to-earnings valuations well beyond those of comparable markets elsewhere. Since mid-June, the rout, which many analysts deemed inevitable, has cut nearly $3 trillion in market value from China’s stock market, the second-largest in the world, after the United States market.


Even as concerns grew about investors’ borrowing to buy stocks they could not afford, Mr. Liu said he believed the danger from the rout was limited.


“I don’t think this market has become a systemic risk at the moment, but this is a wake-up call to the policy makers,” he said, adding that the government should do more to bring professional investors into the market and allow market forces to work out bubbles.