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分析:中国股市为什么暴跌

更新时间:2015-7-8 9:18:33 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

How to Make Sense of China’s Plummeting Stock Market
分析:中国股市为什么暴跌

While the eyes of the world have been on the crisis in Greece, China, a country with 123 times its population, has faced financial troubles of its own. A free fall in the Chinese stock market could threaten the prosperity of the world’s second-largest economy and have long-term effects of its own.

尽管国际社会目前都在关注希腊危机,但人口为希腊123倍的中国,也面临着金融问题。中国股市的暴跌,可能会威胁这个世界第二大经济体的繁荣,并带来长期影响。

But the numbers suggest that the stock market collapse — it’s down 26 percent in four weeks — may be less a shocking turn of events and more an inevitable correction in a market that featured many of the classic signs of a financial bubble.

不过,数据表明,或许股市的暴跌——四周内跌了26%——与其说是一个令人震惊的转折,还不如说是对市场一次不可避免的调整。这个市场存在许多金融泡沫的典型特征。

Stock investing has become a middle-class pastime in China in recent years, and it’s clear the Chinese government is nervous that a continued market rout will wipe out its citizens’ wealth and stoke discord. The Chinese government has pulled out a series of policy measures to try to avert the collapse: interest rate cuts; using government pension funds to prop up the market; announcing plans to investigate those betting on a market drop.

近年来,投资股市已经成了一种中产阶级游戏,而且中国政府明显担心,股市持续下跌会导致国民财富蒸发,不满情绪积聚。为了避免股市崩盘,中国政府已经出台了一系列政策:降息、利用政府的养老基金来扶持股市,并宣布了对做空者进行调查的计划。

The data, though, suggest that the market declines thus far aren’t as outlandish as the Chinese government seems to think. The Shanghai composite index began an upward tear in late 2014, soaring 151 percent from the start of July last year to the June 8 high.

然而数据表明,目前的市场下跌并不像中国政府想象的那么异常。2014年末,上证指数开始上涨,从去年7月初到6月8日的高点,共上涨151%。

The chart shows how easy it is to frame market data in a way that sounds either scary or benign, depending on your inclination. “The Chinese stock market has dropped 26 percent in a month” is scary. “The Chinese stock market is up 83 percent over the last year” sounds great. Both are true.

图表显示,人们很容易就会把市场数据想象的要么很可怕,要么很良性,完全取决于你的倾向。“中国股市一个月跌了26%”的说法很可怕;“中国股市过去一年涨了83%”听起来非常不错。这两种说法都对。

In that sense, the people who have lost money in the last month are those who plowed money into Chinese stocks just in the last few months, aiming to take part in what seemed a rocket trajectory rise in prices. Anyone who has been invested for more than a few months is doing just fine, so far at least.

从这个层面而言,上个月有损失的人,就是那些在过去几个月里投资中国股市的人,他们希望参与到似乎正在飞速上涨的股市。任何已投资股市超过数月的人都没有任何问题,至少目前如此。

As it turns out, if you look at a slightly longer time horizon, the kind of volatility in Chinese stocks witnessed over the last year isn’t that uncommon. The 2010 to 2013 period was more aberration than trend in the steady, consistent rise in prices.

事实上,如果把观察的时间范围稍微扩大,就会知道中国股市过去一年所经历的动荡并非那么不寻常。长期来看,股价波动一直较大,2010年到2013年处于相对平稳上涨的状态。

Consider the Shanghai composite over the last decade, indexed to its June 2005 level and compared to an index of all global stocks. The Chinese market experienced much larger swings during its 2007 boom, 2008 bust and 2009-2010 resurgence than the rest of the world. And those swings were larger in percentage terms than the recent volatility. Big swings in the Chinese stock market may be damaging for Chinese savers, but they don’t necessarily ripple across the global economy the way problems in United States mortgage securities did in 2008 or European debt did in 2011.

我们来看看过去10年的上证指数,以2005年6月的水平为基础进行比对,再与全球股指进行比较。与世界其他地方相比,中国股市在2007年的飞速发展、2008年的暴跌,以及2009年到2010年重新上扬期间经历过更大的震荡。而且从百分比来看,这些震荡比近期的波动更严重。中国股市的剧烈震荡或许会给中国储户带来损失,但它们不一定会像2008年的美国次贷危机和2011年的欧洲债务危机那样,对世界经济造成影响。

Why so much volatility? The Chinese stock market is less well developed than those in countries with more advanced financial markets. Many of the strongest Chinese companies list their shares in Hong Kong or New York, with those listing within China more likely to have questionable business models, accounting and corporate governance.

为何会出现如此剧烈的震荡?因为与金融市场更发达的国家相比,中国股市仍不完善。许多最强的中国企业都选择在香港或纽约上市,而那些在中国上市的企业则很可能在商业模式、审计和企业管理方面存在问题。

That has helped fuel wild swings between great optimism and great pessimism for Chinese stocks. That is no salve for the pain of individual investors who have lost their savings in the recent market drop, but it does support the idea that they had reason to know the kind of risk they were taking on.

所以,这便促使人们对中国股市的态度在极度乐观和极度悲观之间迅速转变。对于那些在近期的股市暴跌中损失储蓄的个人投资者,这并不能缓解他们的痛苦;但是它却为这样一种观点提供了支持:他们有必要了解自己所承担的风险。

But what about fundamentals? Are Chinese stocks falling toward a fair price relative to their earnings and growth rates or overshooting with further to fall?

但是基本原则如何?中国股票是否正在跌到一个相对于它们的收益和增长率而言比较正常的价格,还是已经失控,还会进一步下跌?

Just a year ago, Chinese stocks looked relatively reasonably priced, with a price-to-earnings ratio of around 10, meaning an investor paid the equivalent of about $10 for a share of stock that offered $1 per share in annual earnings. By contrast, at the same time last summer, an investor in American stocks had to pay more like $17 for a share that produced $1 in income.

仅仅一年前,中国股价看起来还比较合理,市盈率在10左右。这就是说,如果一名投资者用大概每股10美元的价格购买一只股票,每年就能获得1美元每股的收益。相比之下,去年夏天同一时间,美国股市投资者要支付每股17美元,才能获得1美元的收益。

But the sharp rise in Chinese share prices starting in late 2014 took place without an accompanying rise in earnings. The shares rose because investors were willing to pay more for the same return.

但是,中国股价从2014年末开始急剧上升,同时收益却没有增加。股价之所以上涨,是因为投资者愿意为同样的回报付更多的钱。

By early June, the price-earnings ratio of the Shanghai composite index had soared to nearly 26, meaning the same dollar in earnings that cost $10 a year ago now cost an investor in those stocks $26. The swoon in prices since then has left that ratio at 19, still a bit pricier than the American market, but still quite a bit higher than the valuation of the Chinese market just a year ago.

6月初,上证指数的市盈率已升至近26。也就是说,现在获得一年前10美元的成本所带来的收益,需要这些股票投资者投入26美元。从那时起,股价开始下跌,市盈率随即变为19,仍然比美国股市高出一些,但是比仅仅一年前中国股市的估值高出了许多。

There is a case that Chinese stocks deserve a rich valuation. If you expect that the companies whose shares you are buying will become much more profitable over time — that is, that they will grow quickly — it might make perfect sense to pay $19 or $26 for a dollar of earnings. That dollar, after all, might soon be two, and then four.

中国股市有理由得到比较高的估值。如果你期待自己购买了股票的公司会随着时间流逝变得更加挣钱——也就是说它们将迅速发展——为1美元的收益支付19或26美元是非常说得通的。毕竟,这1美元可能很快就会变成2美元,然后变成4美元。

But it’s worth looking at the economic backdrop as those companies will be trying to increase their earnings.

但是,在这些公司试图增加收益的过程中,整个经济背景也值得一看。

The Chinese economy was growing by 10 to 12 percent a decade ago, an environment conducive to rapid growth in corporate profits. That has been falling steadily, to 7 percent in the most recent reading. China has been trying to adjust to a more consumer-driven economy, away from housing, infrastructure and imports, but it has been a rocky process.

10年前,中国经济在以10%到12%的速度增长,这种环境对企业利润的迅速增长有利。中国的经济增长率一直在稳步下跌,最近已经降到了7%。中国一直在试图对经济进行调整,希望增加消费对促进经济发展的作用,并减少住房、基础设施建设和进口的影响力,但这是一个艰难的过程。

In other words, valuations are higher relative to earnings, even as economic growth prospects have slowed. And it’s hard to see anything in Chinese economic conditions or policies that changed between July 2014 and June 2015 that would justify the kind of remarkable increase that preceded the recent crash.

换而言之,尽管经济增速放缓,相对于收益,股市估值仍然过高。此外,从2014年7月到2015年6月,很难看到中国经济状况或政策中发生过什么改变,可以很好地解释股市在最近的暴跌前出现的暴涨。

Put all these pieces together, and here’s what we have: a rise in Chinese share prices in the last year that seemed to be driven more by investor psychology than by anything fundamental. It is hard to see how the prices as of a month ago were justified, and easy to see why the sell-off of the last month would occur.

把这些片段拼凑起来,就能得出以下结论:中国股价去年的上涨似乎在更大程度上与投资者的心理、而非任何实质情况有关。很难认为一个月前的股价是合理的,但是很好理解上个月为何会发生抛售股票的现象。

That, in turn, implies that Chinese officials are fighting an uphill battle in their policy moves to try to stop the correction, and helps explain why their policy actions have had little effect so far.

所以这反过来又能说明,中国官员通过出台一些政策来阻止这种调整过程,其实是在进行一场非常艰难的战斗,而且这也能解释他们的政策举动目前为何会收效甚微。

The question now for China — and hence for the world economy — is how far the Chinese market has to fall, and, regardless of whether the drop is justified, how much pain it will cause.

中国当前的问题——对于世界经济也是一样——就是中国股市还要下跌多少,以及——不论这种下跌是否合理——会造成多大的负面影响。

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