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中国股市过山车,借贷炒股者损失惨重

更新时间:2015-7-7 19:49:00 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Chinese Investors Who Borrowed Are Hit Hard by Market Turn
中国股市过山车,借贷炒股者损失惨重

SHANGHAI — With his stock market riches, Gong Yifeng bought a riverfront apartment here for his son and daughter-in-law. He can eat well and travel abroad. He can also afford to pay for his granddaughter’s education.

上海——靠着在股市上赚的钱,龚易峰(音)为儿子儿媳购买了一套滨江公寓。他可以吃好喝好、出国旅行,还能负担得起孙女的教育费用。

But the losses are rapidly piling up for Mr. Gong, a retired shipyard worker. With China’s stock market 30 percent off its highs, his portfolio is down more than $30,000 in the last few weeks.

但龚易峰正在快速地亏钱。他是一名退休的船厂工人,随着中国股市近几周来从高点暴跌30%,他的投资组合损失了逾3万美元(约18.6万元人民币)。

“I don’t need a high-flying market, just a stable one,” Mr. Gong said.

“我不需要股市一飞冲天,只需要它稳步发展,”龚易峰说。

Millions of ordinary investors like Mr. Gong, who piled into an ever-soaring Chinese stock market over the last year, are bracing for a roller-coaster ride.

在过去一年里,数以百万计像龚易峰这样的普通投资者,涌入不断飙升的中国股市。如今,他们遭遇了这波过山车似的起落。

With stock prices plummeting, the government announced plans over the weekend to help prop up the market. While big state-owned companies fared relatively well on Monday, smaller companies continued to slide. The fallout also spread to the Hong Kong markets.

由于股价暴跌,政府上周末宣布了救市计划。虽然本周一大型国有企业表现相对较好,但规模较小的公司股价继续下滑。影响还蔓延到了香港股市。

The situation is putting ordinary investors, many of whom invested in smaller stocks, in a difficult place. This latest slump may be just another periodic price dip. Or it could be the beginning of a lengthy downturn, like the one that started in late 2007, when the market eventually fell about 70 percent.

这种境况令普通投资者置于困境,他们中很多人投资的都是较小公司的股票。近期的暴跌可能只是一个周期性的回调,但也有可能是漫长低迷的开端,这在2007年底就发生过一次,当时股市最终下跌约70%。

For now, Mr. Gong, 65, is sticking with stocks.

65岁的龚易峰目前仍坚守股市。

“Where else can an ordinary person like me put my money?” Mr. Gong said on Monday, as he watched a board of flickering stock prices at a brokerage firm in downtown Shanghai. “People like me can’t just start investing in properties.”

“像我这样的普通人,还有什么别的地方可以投资的?”周一,在上海闹市区一家证券公司,龚易峰一边看着股价闪烁的屏幕一边说。“我这样的人,不可能轻易就去投资房地产。”

What happened in China over the last year looks like another episode of the madness of crowds, when many investors seem to lose their senses. They started to borrow money on margin to buy shares they couldn’t afford. They bet everything on the belief that this was a new era, gleefully believing stocks moved in only one direction.

中国过去一年里发生的事情,看上去就像是又一场群众性的癫狂,很多投资者似乎失去了理智。他们开始借钱炒股,买入他们原本负担不起的股票。他们相信这是一个新时代,兴高采烈地以为股价只会朝一个方向变化,并为此赌上了一切。

But there is a major difference between the markets in China and those in the other big economies like the United States. In China, mom-and-pop investors, rather than big institutions, make up the bulk of stock purchases. Such smaller players don’t necessarily have the resources to withstand the volatility.

但是中国股市与美国等其他大型经济体的股市之间,存在着重大差异。在中国,大量购买股票的是小散户,而不是大机构。这些散户不一定有足够的资源承受股市波动。

The stock market boom began to take shape a year ago.

这次的股市繁荣开始于一年前。

As property prices slumped, the government started to cut interest rates in an effort to stabilize the economy. With share prices looking undervalued and real estate in a rut, money flowed into stocks, said Chang Chun, a finance expert and executive dean at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance at Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

随着房地产价格下跌,政府开始降息来稳定经济。由于股价被低估,楼市止步不前,资金流入了股市,上海交通大学上海高级金融学院执行院长、金融专家张春(Chang Chun)说。

The government further fueled interest by viewing the market as a way to help start-ups and innovative companies. The state-run news media began publishing articles about the coming bull run and the creation of exchanges geared toward listing new companies.

政府把股市视为一种帮助初创公司和创新型企业的手段,这进一步推动了投资者的兴趣。官方新闻媒体开始发布文章,谈论即将到来的牛市,以及为迎接新公司上市建立新的交易所。

As droves of investors jumped on board, the stock market boom began to head into bubble territory.

投资者成群结队地涌入股市,股市繁荣开始走向泡沫。

The nation’s two major exchanges, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, doubled and even tripled in 12 months. Early this year, the stock of a website that provides financial news and information rose more than 350 percent over two months. Stock valuations in China hit the roof; some companies were trading at 300 times trailing earnings.

在12个月时间里,中国两大交易所上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所的总市值增加了一倍,甚至两倍。今年年初,一个提供财经新闻及信息的网站,股价在两个月内涨幅超过350%。中国市场上的股价被大大高估,一些公司的股票市盈率达到300倍。

“Things got crazy, it really became a feeding frenzy,” Mr. Chang said. “People were talking about new economy stocks.” In the ChiNext market in Shenzhen, some academics found the average price-to-earnings ratio was about 140, even higher than the Nasdaq bubble in the United States in 2000, he added.

“情况变得很疯狂,大家真的是在疯狂炒股,”张春说。“人们都在谈论‘新经济概念股’。”他补充道,在深圳的创业板市场,一些学者发现,平均市盈率约为140,比美国2000年纳斯达克泡沫时期还高。

The market started to soften a few months ago. Worried about excess speculation, the government started putting restrictions on the so-called leverage, or borrowing, used to buy stocks. In a May report, Credit Suisse analysts said that margin lending and other forms of borrowing to purchase shares amounted to more than $500 billion, increasing the market risk.

几个月前,市场开始走弱。政府担心投机过度,开始限制所谓的杠杆,即举债购买股票。在5月的一份报告中,瑞信(Credit Suisse)分析师写道,保证金贷款和用来购买股票的其他形式的借款,总金额超过了5000亿美元,这增加了市场风险。

Just a few weeks ago, analysts at several major banks started calling a top and urging caution among investors. After that, the government once again tightened restrictions on margin borrowing, helping to undermine confidence in the market.

就在几周前,几大银行的分析师称行情见顶,提醒投资者要谨慎。之后,政府再次加强了对保证金贷款的限制,进一步削弱了市场信心。

Heavy selling led to more selling. Since May, China’s stock market — the second-largest in the world after the United States — has lost nearly $3 trillion in market value.

大量抛售引发了更多的抛售。5月以来,中国股市——仅次于美国的全球第二大股市——已经损失了将近3万亿美元的市值。

The Chinese government’s response to the market downturn has been swift. In late June, China’s Central Bank cut interest rates, a move meant to help make buying stocks more attractive than putting money in the bank. When stock prices continued to fall, the authorities called an emergency meeting last weekend in Beijing. The country suspended new stock listings, and 21 brokerage firms agreed to set up a $19 billion stabilization fund to help prop up the markets.

中国政府迅速采取措施,来应对股市的下跌。6月下旬,中国央行宣布降息,旨在增加购买股票的吸引力,鼓励人们不要把钱存在银行。随着股价持续下跌,有关部门上周末在北京召开了紧急会议。中国暂停了新股上市,21家券商同意成立总额190亿美元的稳定基金,来帮助支撑股价。

China is facing the stock market slump at a complicated time. The economy has weakened considerably, now that the country is growing at its slowest pace in more than a decade. Many local governments are heavily indebted.

中国在一个很复杂的时间点上,遭遇了股市低迷。中国经济显著走弱,现在是十多年来经济增长最慢的时候。很多地方政府都负债累累。

With the stock market falling so swiftly, concerns have grown about social and political repercussions. The enormous amount of borrowing that helped lift share prices could turn into bad debt, hurting banks, brokerages and other financial institutions. And small investors could be devastated.

行情如此迅速地下跌,让人们日益担心它会产生怎样的社会和政治影响。帮助推高股价的巨额贷款,可能会变成坏账,令银行、券商等金融机构蒙受损失。而散户则可能一败涂地。

“Honestly, my confidence in regulators and the market is diminishing,” said Chen Minliang, a publishing house editor in Shanghai who has been playing the market for years. “But I still think the market itself has some rules and will likely rebound after reaching the floor.”

“说实话,我对监管机构和市场的信心在日益减少,”陈民亮(音)说。“不过我仍然认为市场本身有一些规律,有可能在探底后反弹。”他是上海一家出版社的编辑,有多年的炒股经验。

The most vulnerable in a sharp, prolonged stock downturn could be people like Mr. Gong, the retired shipyard worker. Most of his family’s assets are tied up in the stock market, with little in the bank.

如果股市长期、大幅走低,最容易受损的可能就是船厂退休工人龚易峰这样的人。他把家里的大部分资产都投在了股市上,几乎没有银行存款。

Mr. Gong, who never attended college, made less than $150 a month in the shipyards. In the mid-1990s, he started playing the stocks, after realizing that his job as a state worker was not going to make him rich. He retired in 2005, and has since built up a $100,000 portfolio.

龚易峰没上过大学,在船厂的月工资不到150美元。90年代中期,他意识到在国企当工人无法发家致富,于是开始炒股。从2005年退休起,他积累起了价值10万美元的投资组合。

“I didn’t really have a good income,” he said. “But now, I’m doing better than some people I know who are just living on their pension.”

“我自己的收入并不怎么高,”他说。“但现在,和我认识的那些只靠退休金生活的人相比,我过得更好一些。”

About three times a week, Mr. Gong visits one of his favorite brokerage houses to meet friends, swap tips and watch the markets gyrate. He was there on Monday, off a narrow street in the city’s riverfront district, in front of an enormous screen arrayed with stock prices, ticker symbols and trading volumes.

龚易峰每周去三次他最喜欢的证券公司交易厅,到那里见见朋友,交流消息,看着行情的不断波动。那所交易厅位于上海一个滨江社区的一条小街旁,本周一他也在那里。巨大的屏幕上显示着股票价格、股票代码和成交量。

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