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中国政府出手救市,暂停新股发行

更新时间:2015-7-6 9:09:35 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

China Moves to Stabilize Stock Markets; Initial Offerings Halted
中国政府出手救市,暂停新股发行

HONG KONG — Struggling to respond to precipitous declines on China’s stock markets over the last three weeks, the country’s biggest brokerage firms unveiled a government-endorsed plan on Saturday to buy shares starting on Monday, while both of the country’s stock exchanges suspended all further initial public offerings of stock.

香港——过去三周中国股市大跌,中国最大的一批证券公司对此艰难地做出应对,在周六公布了一项得到政府支持的计划,从周一开始购买股票。与此同时,沪深两市暂停发行新股。

The government-controlled Securities Association of China said that 21 big brokerage firms had agreed to set up a fund worth at least 120 billion renminbi, or $19.4 billion, to buy shares in the largest, most stable companies, and to stop selling shares from their own portfolios. But some experts said the moves might not be enough to stop the hemorrhaging of money from the stock market, particularly given that $105 billion in shares changed hands in Shanghai on Friday.

由政府控制的中国证券业协会表示,21家大型证券公司已同意设立一只至少价值1200亿元人民币的基金,购买规模最大、最稳定的公司的股票,并停止减持已有股票。但一些专家称,这些举措可能还不足以阻止资金逃出股市,特别是考虑到周五沪市成交额高达6480.54亿元。

The association did not specify whether the fund would be allowed to use its initial purchases of shares as collateral to borrow money, probably from the government, and buy more shares. That could give it the leverage to have a bigger effect on the market.

该协会并未阐明是否允许这支基金以最初购买的股票为抵押来借入资金。这样做可以让该基金凭借杠杆,对市场产生更大的影响。

“If it’s only 120 billion renminbi, to be honest, it’s too small,” said Hao Hong, the chief strategist of the Bank of Communications International, the global finance unit of China’s fifth-largest bank. “But if you can add leverage on top of it, that could support the large-cap, blue-chip stocks.”

“如果只是1200亿元,说实话,太少了,”交银国际首席策略师洪灏说。“如果能在它的基础上加杠杆,可能就会对大盘蓝筹股起到支撑作用。”交银国际是中国第五大银行交通银行旗下的全球金融部门。

On Saturday evening, China’s two stock exchanges — in Shanghai and in the far southern city, Shenzhen — issued notices suspending initial public offerings until further notice even for companies that already had provisional approval to list their shares.

周六傍晚,分别位于上海和深圳的两家证券交易所发布通知,称暂停新股发行,直到有进一步通知,就连已经获得临时许可的公司也被暂缓上市。

Halting initial public offerings encourages investors to keep their cash in existing stock listings instead. The Shenzhen exchange issued suspension notices on Saturday for 18 planned initial public offerings, citing “the recent significant market turbulence” in each case, and Shanghai issued notices for 10 offerings for the same reason.

停止公开发行会鼓励投资者将资金留在现有股票上。深交所周六对18家计划首次公开发行的公司发出了暂停发行的公告,对每家公司都称原因是“近期市场波动较大”。上交所也以同样的理由,发布了涉及10家公司的通知。

The announcements came as the government has been scrambling to halt the steepest plunge in the Shanghai stock market in nearly a quarter-century. Share prices have fallen nearly a third since June 12, erasing more than $2 trillion of value and inflicting immediate hardship on millions of families who not only invested their savings but also borrowed heavily at steep interest rates to buy more shares.

两家交易所发布相关通知之际,政府一直在手忙脚乱地阻止沪市行情近四分之一世纪以来最大幅度的跳水。自6月12日以来,股价跌落近三分之一,导致股市缩水超过2万亿美元,让数百万家庭立即陷入困境,他们不仅将自己的积蓄投入股市,还以高额利息大量举债炒股。

The design of the brokerage industry’s fund bore some similarities to the Hong Kong Exchange Fund, a government-run fund that played a crucial role in reversing the fall of the Hong Kong stock market in 1998, during the Asian financial crisis. The fund previously invested the Hong Kong government’s fiscal reserves cautiously in deposits at low interest rates. But when it began buying stocks heavily, it set off a stock market turnaround and produced a large profit for the government.

证券业出资成立基金的设计,与香港外汇基金(Hong Kong Exchange Fund)有几分相似。后者由政府经营,在亚洲金融危机期间的1998年,它对扭转香港股市的下跌趋势发挥了关键作用。之前,该基金小心谨慎地将香港政府的财政储备以存款的形式投资,利率较低。但开始大举买进股票时,它引发了股市的上扬,还为政府赚取了大量利润。

A statement by the Securities Association of China on Saturday to its members was an odd mix of capitalist and Maoist rhetoric urging them to take collective action to help the stock market.

中国证券业协会周六向会员发出的倡议书中,既有资本主义措辞,也有毛派论调,二者怪异地掺杂在了一起。倡议书敦促协会成员集体行动,救助股市。

“Excessively rapid rises and falls in the stock market are not conducive to the stable and healthy development of the market,” the statement said, “and as major players in this market, securities companies must take the initiative to shoulder responsibility, to unify as one, merge our wills and safeguard market stability with all our strength.”

“股票市场过快上涨和下跌,都不利于市场稳定健康发展,”倡议书称,“证券公司作为市场主要参与者,必须主动承担责任,团结一致,众志成城,全力维护市场稳定。”

The Securities Association also called on its members to buy back some of their own shares, supporting prices. China’s largest oil companies and big banks, in which the government holds controlling stakes, are widely believed to have used some of their money in the last week to buy back shares, and their shares have fared much better than those of smaller companies.

证券业协会还号召成员回购自己的部分股票,从而支撑股价。外界普遍认为,由政府占控股权的中国最大的石油公司和银行,已在上周用自己的钱回购股票。它们的股票表现得远比规模较小的公司好得多。

But the design of the securities industry’s fund, with an emphasis on blue chip stocks, could end up protecting wealthy Chinese and foreign investors much more than the young workers and families all over China who have borrowed heavily in recent months to buy stocks that seemed to be soaring skyward, Hong Kong financiers said. Shares in large companies represent only about 30 percent of the overall value of the Shanghai stock market.

但香港的金融业人士称,重点关注蓝筹股的该证券业基金的设计,可能最终更多的是保护富裕的中外投资者,而不是年轻的工薪阶层,以及最近几个月在股市飞涨之际,全国各地大量举债买股票的家庭。大公司的股票仅占沪市总市值的大约30%。

As Chinese stocks soared in the 12 months until their peak on June 12, the small- and medium-size companies with weak financial fundamentals fared the best. Many of them quadrupled, or rose even more, in value, while the overall index doubled because large-cap stocks lagged far behind.

中国股市在过去12个月里持续上涨,一直到6月12日急转直下。在行情上扬的时间里,金融基本面脆弱的中小企业是表现最好的。很多公司的市值翻了两番甚至更多,而尽管大盘股远远落后,但综合指数也翻了一番。

The small-cap and medium-cap stocks overwhelmingly tended to draw middle-class and working-class investors who were buying whatever stocks were rising fastest. The Shanghai market rose 149 percent in the year until June 12. By comparison, a stock price index of 100 large mainland Chinese companies that are traded in Hong Kong — and many of them in Shanghai, too — rose 24 percent over the same period.

中小盘股极大地吸引了中产阶级和工薪阶层投资者,不管是什么股票,只要是涨得最快的,这些投资者都会买。在截至6月12日的一年时间里,沪市涨幅149%。但与之形成对比的是,一项涵盖在香港上市的100家大型内地企业的股价指数同期涨幅仅为24%,这些企业中有很多也同时在上海上市。

Hong Kong sets tougher listing rules than Shanghai to reduce fraud, and also keeps closer controls on trading with borrowed money. Official statistics suggest that loans to investors for stock purchases climbed ninefold in mainland China over the last two years and were supplemented by widespread lending by informal financial companies at annual interest rates exceeding 20 percent.

为了减少诈骗,同时也为了更密切地管控借贷交易,香港制定的上市规则比上海严格。官方统计数据显示,过去两年里,内地借给投资者炒股的贷款攀升了九倍,非正规金融公司以普遍超过20%的年利率发放的贷款助长了这一势头。

The bailout funds could also end up helping big state-owned enterprises at the expense of smaller businesses, which tend to be in the private sector. President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Keqiang have spoken of their desire to increase the role of the private sector to improve the efficiency of the Chinese economy.

救助基金最终可能会帮助大型国有企业,削弱往往属于私营领域的规模较小的企业。中国国家主席习近平和总理李克强曾表示,希望增强私营部门的作用,以提升中国经济的效率。

Other officials have even hinted at selling more shares in state-controlled enterprises on stock markets — the reverse of what now seems to be happening, as state-controlled companies use part of their cash reserves to buy back shares from the public.

其他一些官员甚至暗示在股市上出售更多国有企业的股票。这一点与眼下看上去正在发生的实际情况正相反,因为国有企业正在使用部分现金储备,从民众手里回购股票。

Hours after the securities industry’s statement, the government-backed Asset Management Association of China gathered representatives from 25 mutual fund companies, who announced plans to help shore up the stock market by speeding the issuance of funds investing in equities. But the association did not introduce its own market stabilization fund like the brokerage industry, contrary to initial reports on Chinese social media that it would do so.

证券业协会的倡议书发表几小时后,由政府支持的中国证券投资基金业协会召集了25家共同基金公司的代表。这些公司宣布,计划通过加快发行投资股市的基金,来帮助巩固股市。但与中国社交媒体上较早的报道相反,中国证券投资基金业协会并未像证券业那样,推出自己的救市基金。

Another worry lies in whether many Chinese mutual funds and other investment funds may be required to liquidate suddenly. Many of these funds have rules on losses in the underlying contracts that formed them: If the value of the fund falls 30 percent, it must return the remaining money to shareholders, typically by cashing in all of its shares.

另一个担忧在于,中国很多共同基金和其他投资基金是否会突然被要求清算。它们中的很多,都在成立基金的基础合同中对亏损做出了规定:如果基金价值下跌30%,则必须将剩余资金返还给股东,通常是通过出售所有股票的方式。

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