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研究机构预测明年全球经济形势好转

更新时间:2015-6-5 9:39:12 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

World Economy Improving at Sluggish Pace, O.E.C.D. Reports
研究机构预测明年全球经济形势好转

PARIS — The world economy continues to heal at a disappointingly slow pace, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Wednesday, but it predicted that growth should return to a healthier rate close to its long-term goal by the end of 2016.

巴黎——经济合作与发展组织(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,简称OECD)周三表示,世界经济复苏的速度依然缓慢,令人失望。不过该组织预测,增长应该会在2016年年底之前,回到更健康的水平,接近其长期目标。

“Global growth is improving, but it’s not good enough,” Catherine L. Mann, the organization’s chief economist, said in a conference call held before the release of the forecast by the O.E.C.D., the research and policy organization of the world’s richest countries. “It’s a B-minus performance.”

“全球增长正在好转,但还不够好,”OECD首席经济学家凯瑟琳·L·曼(Catherine L. Mann)在该组织发布预测报告前召开的电话会议上说。“这样的表现可以打一个B减。”OECD是一家以全世界最富裕国家为对象的研究和政策组织。

The slow growth has had harmful consequences, Ms. Mann said, contributing to weak labor markets and rising inequality in many countries.

凯瑟琳表示,增长缓慢造成了不良后果,导致劳动力市场疲软,很多国家的贫富差距日渐拉大。

With energy prices relatively low and monetary policy accommodative, growth next year should reach 3.8 percent, she said. That would be the strongest level since before the 2008 credit crisis, Ms. Mann noted, though she expressed concern about the weak start to 2015 and the continued poor investment climate.

她说,鉴于能源价格相对较低,货币政策宽松,明年的增长应该会达到3.8%。她指出,这将是自2008年信贷危机之前以来的最高水平,不过她也表示了对2015年开局疲软,及投资环境依然恶劣的担忧。

Ms. Mann said she expected global fixed investment, which she described as “a key component of potential output,” to increase by about 4 percent next year, the highest since the financial crisis started in 2008. Even that level would fall short of the amount needed to return labor markets to normal and raise living standards for those who have missed out on the recovery, she said.

凯瑟琳称固定投资是“潜在产出的关键组成部分”,并预计明年全球固定投资将增加大约4%,这是自2008年开始的金融危机以来的最大增幅。但她表示,即便是这个速度,也依然不足以让劳动力市场恢复正常,并改善那些未能从复苏中获益的人的生活水平。

She cited several risks, however, to that relatively optimistic picture. Among them are the Greek economic and fiscal crisis, which still remains unresolved; the possibility of a sharp slowdown in China; and the danger that financial markets will slump when the Federal Reserve begins raising interest rates.

她还提到了这一相对乐观的形势所面临的几个风险,其中包括希腊的经济和财政危机依然悬而未决,中国的增长可能急剧放缓,以及当美联储(Federal Reserve)开始提高利率时,金融市场将变得萧条。

The United States, which lost ground in the first quarter by one key measure — changes in gross domestic product — is expected to eke out an advance of about 2 percent for the year as a whole, accelerating to 2.8 percent next year, according to the O.E.C.D. forecast.

从GDP变化这个关键标准来看,OECD预测第一季度表现差强人意的美国,今年全年勉强能实现大约2%的增长,并在明年将其提高到2.8%。

“U.S. growth projections remain weak compared with recoveries we’ve seen in the past,” Ms. Mann said.

“与我们以往看到的复苏相比,美国的增长前景仍然疲弱,”凯瑟琳说。

The organization projected that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates to 2 percent by December 2016, from a current level near zero.

该组织预计,到2016年12月,美联储将把利率从目前接近零的水平升高到2%。

Despite its relatively meager outlook, the United States economy, by most measures, continues to outperform nearly all other advanced industrial nations.

尽管前景仍然比较暗淡,但按照多数标准来看,美国经济的表现都超过了几乎所有其他发达工业国家。

The eurozone will also start to perk up, the O.E.C.D. forecast, growing 1.4 percent in 2015 and 2.1 percent in 2016, after a 0.9 percent expansion in 2014. It warned that high unemployment would continue to weigh on the euro currency bloc’s prospects, with only a gradual decline, to around 10 percent, by the end of 2016.

OECD预计,欧元区也将开始加速增长,在2014年实现0.9%的经济增幅之后,2015年的经济增长将达到1.4%,2016年达到2.1%。该机构警告说,高失业率将继续影响欧元区的前景,失业率只会缓慢下降,到2016年底降到10%左右。

The eurozone’s jobless rate in April edged down to 11.1 percent, from 11.2 percent in March, according to figures released on Wednesday by Eurostat, the European Union statistics agency. The March figure was revised downward from an earlier reported rate of 11.3 percent.

欧盟统计机构欧洲统计局(Eurostat)周三公布的数据显示,今年4月,欧元区的失业率从3月份的11.2%下降到了11.1%。3月份的数字较之前公布的11.3%有下行修正。

The O.E.C.D. predicted that the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan would continue to hold rates near zero through the end of 2016.

OECD预计,欧洲央行(European Central Bank )和日本银行(Bank of Japan)将使利率继续保持在接近零的水平,直到2016年底。

The O.E.C.D. forecast that China, which has posted growth well above 7 percent in recent years, would fall short of that level, which is considered necessary to keep unemployment from rising. It said the increase in output could slow to 6.8 percent this year and 6.7 percent in 2016.

中国虽然最近几年公布的经济增幅都超过了7%。但OECD预计,中国的经济增长将下滑到7%以下。而7%是防止失业率上升必须达到的水平。OECD称,中国今年的经济增幅可能下降到6.8%,2016年则降到6.7%。

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