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中国转变对美国亚太自贸协定看法

更新时间:2015-4-29 19:14:00 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Once Concerned, China Is Quiet About Trans-Pacific Trade Deal
中国转变对美国亚太自贸协定看法

WASHINGTON — As Congress debates the direction of economic policy in the Pacific, the main country worried about an American-led trade deal has gone nearly silent: China.

华盛顿——随着美国国会对太平洋地区经济政策的走向进行讨论,对美国牵头的一项贸易协议曾表示担心的主要国家——中国——却几乎保持了沉默。

Two years ago, the prospect of the deal, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, evoked fears in China of commercial encirclement, particularly as the initiative followed the Obama administration’s strategic turn to Asia. Meeting with President Obama in California in 2013, President Xi Jinping of China made a point of asking that the United States keep him informed on the negotiations, even though Beijing did not want to join the nascent trade agreement.

两年前,达成跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(Trans Pacific Partnership,简称TPP)的可能性引起了中国对经济包围的担心,尤其是奥巴马政府此前采取了转向亚洲的战略。2013年,中国国家主席习近平在加利福尼亚州会见奥巴马总统时表明了态度,提请美国让他了解相关谈判的进展,尽管北京并不希望加入这个新出现的贸易协定。

The tempo of negotiations has accelerated considerably since then, with people involved saying that an agreement is close. Michael Froman, the United States trade representative, flew to Japan last week for talks. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who arrived in the United States on Sunday, is scheduled to discuss the pact in Washington and address a joint meeting of Congress. And Congress is deciding whether to give the president fast-track authority for such trade agreements, which would put a deal to a vote without allowing amendments.

从那时起,谈判节奏大大加快。知情人士透露,协议的达成近在眼前。上周,美国贸易代表迈克尔·费罗曼(Michael Froman)飞往日本进行谈判。周日抵达美国访问的日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)将在华盛顿就此协议进行讨论,并在国会的两院联席会议上发表讲话。国会正在决定是否要授予总统针对此类贸易协议的“快速通道”权。这种授权将使协议在不允许增加修订案的情况下接受投票。

As the deal has come to the forefront again, the Chinese government has changed its view.

随着TPP再次成为人们关注的焦点,中国政府在改变自身的看法。

Some of China’s leading trade policy intellectuals now say that they have few concerns about the agreement. They also say that the pact could even help China, by making it easier for Beijing to pursue its own regional agreements without facing criticism that it should instead pursue ambitious global free trade pacts that would require significantly opening its markets to Western competition.

目前,中国贸易政策方面的一些著名学者表示,他们不大担心这项协议。他们还称,该协议甚至可能有利于中国,让北京能更轻松地去追求自己的地区性协议,而不必遭到批判,要求中国转而追求尺度更大的全球性自由贸易协定,从而迫使其大幅度地向西方竞争者敞开市场。

“We don’t think T.P.P. is a challenge to China — we will watch and study,” said He Weiwen, a former Commerce Ministry official who is now the co-director of the China-United States-European Union Study Center in Beijing.

曾担任商务部官员的中国国际贸易学会中美欧研究中心主任何伟文表示,“我们认为TPP不会对中国构成挑战——我们会进行观察和研究。”

“We are more or less neutral because we have our own agenda, pushing forward Asean plus six and the Silk Road,” he said, referring to two of China’s own regional initiatives. He added that China would make sure its regional pacts complied with global free trade rules on such deals.

“我们基本是中立的,因为我们有自己的议程,要推动东盟加六国和一带一路项目,”他说。这里指的是中国自己的两项地区性倡议。他还表示,中国将保证其地区协议符合关于此类协议的全球自由贸易规则。

The Obama administration has been trying to strike a difficult diplomatic and legislative balance on the Trans-Pacific Partnership. In part, it wants to reassure Beijing that the pact is not aimed at putting Chinese trade at a disadvantage.

奥巴马政府一直试图在TPP的问题上取得外交和立法两方面的艰难平衡。一方面,它想安抚北京,该协定的目的并不是要让中国贸易处于不利地位。

“T.P.P. is open architecture, and T.P.P. is really meant to be about setting high standards for trade — standards that aspire to be equivalent to the United States’,” said Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker.

商务部长彭妮·普利茨克(Penny Pritzker)说,“TPP是开放式架构,它真实意图是设定高的贸易标准——希望能企及美国的标准。”

Yet congressional leaders say that administration officials have also been happy to portray the agreement, in private, as a geopolitical tactic to strengthen economic links with American allies in Asia like Japan.

不过,国会领导人称,奥巴马政府的官员私底下也乐于把这项协议描述为一项地缘政治策略,意在加强与日本等美国在亚洲的盟友之间的经济联系。

“When the administration sells me on this, it’s all geopolitics, not economics: We want to keep these countries in our orbit, not China’s,” said Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York. “I agree with that. But I need to be sold on the economics.”

“当奥巴马政府向我兜售这个协议时,说的都是地缘政治方面的理由,而不是经济方面:我们希望使这些国家一直处于我们的势力范围内,而不是中国的势力范围,”来自纽约州的联邦参议员查尔斯·E·舒默(Charles E. Schumer)说。“我同意这一点。但还需要用经济方面的理由来说服我。”

Senior Chinese officials have started to soften on the Trans-Pacific Partnership in recent months. In October, Zhu Guangyao, a vice finance minister, said that the pact would be “incomplete” without China, and hinted that China might want to participate someday.

中国的高层官员最近几个月开始缓和对TPP的态度。去年10月,财政部副部长朱光耀表示,没有中国的参与,该协定将是“不完整的”,并暗示中国有朝一日或许会想要加入。

“For the T.P.P., frankly speaking, there have been internal debates within both the United States and the Chinese government,” Mr. Zhu said during a visit to Washington. “But now our position is clear: As China becomes more open, it’s very important for us to be integrated into the global trade system with a high standard.”

“对于中国是否要加入TPP谈判一事,在中美两国政府内部都有争议,”朱光耀在访问华盛顿时说。“但中国的立场已经明确,即加入高质量的国际贸易体系非常重要。”

Still, the trade deal presents some potential tensions for China.

尽管如此,该贸易协定还是可能会给中国带来一些麻烦。

The United States already has free trade agreements with half the countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, notably South Korea. So the most important negotiations in the pact involve Japan and Vietnam, which do not have such deals.

美国已与一半的TPP参与国签订了自由贸易协议,尤其是韩国。因此,有关TPP最重要的谈判涉及尚未与美国签订类似协议的日本和越南。

The prominence of Japan in the trade talks has made some Chinese officials and trade experts wary. Japan is China’s main political and military rival in East Asia. The free trade agreement could give Japanese companies better access to the American market in large, high-tech industries that China wants to dominate, like automobile manufacturing and telecommunications.

日本在这项贸易谈判中的突出地位让一些中国官员和贸易专家心生警惕。日本是中国在东亚地区主要的政治及军事对手。该自由贸易协议可能会为日本企业进入美国大规模的高科技产业市场提供便利,比如汽车制造和电信市场,而中国希望能在这些市场上占据主导。

By agreeing to open up its financial sector, Vietnam would also gain an advantage in exporting to the United States in a range of low-tech goods like shoes and garments. The trade deal could accelerate the relocation of these industries from China, where blue-collar wages have quintupled in the past decade, to Vietnam, where pay has risen more slowly.

通过同意开放金融领域,越南也会在向美国出口鞋履服装等低技术含量商品方面获得一定的优势。该贸易协定或许会加快将这些产业从中国转移到越南的步伐。中国蓝领工人的薪资在过去十年增加了四倍,而越南的薪资水平上涨较慢。

The planned trade agreement “is in large part a Japan story and a Vietnam story,” said Peter A. Petri, a professor of international finance at Brandeis University.

布兰迪斯大学(Brandeis University)国际金融学教授彼得·A·彼得里(Peter A. Petri)表示,这份计划中的贸易协定“在很大程度上主角是日本和越南”。

Others in China are suspicious of how some countries ended up participating in the T.P.P. negotiations and others did not.

中国的其他一些人士则提出疑问,为何一些国家能参与TPP,而另一些国家却不行?

“Right now, the T.P.P. has looped in many Southeast Asian countries, like Vietnam and Philippines, whose financial industries actually lag behind China’s,” said Shen Guobing, a professor at Fudan University’s Institute of World Economy in Shanghai. “When they are allowed in, yet China is not, it raises questions of a double standard.”

“现在框进了很多东南亚国家,像越南、像菲律宾,其实这些国家金融业比中国还落后,”上海复旦大学世界经济研究所的沈国兵教授说。“让他们加入,却又不让中国加入,这就形成了规则的两面性。”

Administration officials insist that all countries in the trade agreement will meet consistent standards of openness, and say that China made its own decision not to participate.

奥巴马政府的官员坚称所有参与国均需达到一致的开放标准,并称是中国自己决定不加入。

China has its own reasons for shying away from a trans-Pacific trade deal extending from Chile to Japan.

中国有自身的理由来避开这样一份涉及从智利到日本的跨洋贸易协定。

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