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经济放缓促中国政府出手刺激

更新时间:2015-4-17 15:27:01 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

In China, Weak Growth Is Expected to Push Beijing into Action
经济放缓促中国政府出手刺激

HONG KONG—China’s leaders are widely expected to cut interest rates and encourage lending after data on Wednesday showed that an industrial slump and a weak housing market had dragged economic growth to its slowest pace in six years.

香港——周三公布数据显示,工业衰退和房产市场走软使中国的经济增长降到了6年来的最低水平。人们广泛预期,中国领导人将降低利率并鼓励借贷。

The question now is whether those steps will be enough to avert an even sharper slowdown.

目前的问题是,这些举措是否足以避免经济出现更严重的放缓。

Key barometers of the country’s economic health are looking gloomy. Industrial production in March increased at its slowest pace since late 2008, while retail sales, a sign of consumer demand, rose at the slowest rate in nearly a decade. Land purchases by developers, a major source of revenue for China’s heavily indebted local governments, fell 32 percent in the first three months.

中国经济状况的关键指标看起来令人悲观。3月的工业产出增长是2008年末以来的最低水平,而零售业销售额增长则达到了近10年来的最低水平。零售业销售额是反映消费者需求的指标。一季度,开发商购买的土地——这是中国负债严重的地方政府的主要收入来源——也减少了32%。

”There certainly is pressure now, and the pressure on some sectors is quite heavy,” China’s premier, Li Keqiang, told a gathering of economists in Beijing on Tuesday, before the new growth figures were released.

周二在新增长数据发布前,中国国务院总理李克强在北京告诉一群经济学家,“当前确有压力,甚至在一些行业的压力还比较大。”

While acknowledging the pressures, Mr. Li continued, ”but there is also impetus, and many businesses take a positive long-term view of this market,” He added: “Our toolbox still has many policy tools, and the biggest tool is reform.”

虽然承认存在压力,李克强还说,“但也有动力,多数企业长期看好这个市场。”他还说,“我们的‘工具箱’里还有不少政策工具,而最大的工具就是‘改革’。”

Traditionally, China’s biggest and most effective policy tool has been ordering the state-controlled financial system to increase lending, which lifts investment that quickly translates into economic growth.

按照惯例,中国规模最大、最有效的政策工具一直是命令由国家控制的金融体系扩大借贷,这样做可以促进投资,投资又能迅速转化为经济增长。

But the overhauls Mr. Li mentioned are aimed at reducing this dependence on credit-fueled growth — which the consulting firm McKinsey estimates has pushed China’s overall debt to as much as 282 percent of gross domestic product — and replacing it with an approach that relies on household demand. That transition will take time and, as the latest figures suggest, could be uncomfortable.

然而,李克强所提到的改革,旨在减轻对借贷推动的增长的这种依赖,并转向一种依赖于家庭需求的增长路径。咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)估计,信贷推动的增长路径已经把中国的整体债务抬高到了国内生产总值(GDP)的282%。这种转变将需要时间,而且最新数据显示,过程可能也会充满曲折。

“China can perhaps defer or elongate the slowdown in aggregate growth but not prevent it,” George Magnus, a financial consultant and former chief economist at UBS, said in an email. “It’s kind of what rebalancing requires — a downshift in the investment rate. But I’m not sure the leadership is willing to swallow hard and let it happen.”

“中国或许可以推迟或延缓总体增长的放缓,但却无法阻止这种现象,”金融顾问、瑞银(UBS)前首席经济学家乔治·马格纳斯(George Magnus)在电子邮件中说。“这就是再平衡所需要的东西——降低投资率。但我不确定领导层会耐着性子,让转变发生。”

In the first three months of the year, China’s economy grew 7 percent compared with a year earlier, in line with economists’ forecasts. Although the growth rate means China still has one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies, it is the country’s slowest quarterly expansion since early 2009, when it was still feeling the effects of the global financial crisis.

今年前3个月,中国经济同比增长7%,符合经济学家们的预期。尽管这一数值仍能保证中国跻身全球增长最快的经济体之列,但同时也标志着中国进入了自2009年初以来增长最慢的一个季度,当时全球经济危机仍在对中国产生影响。

China’s Communist Party leadership has lowered its official growth target for this year to about 7 percent. That would be the nation’s slowest annual expansion in 25 years. Policy makers are trying to manage the slowdown in a way that preserves job creation and keeps credit flowing to businesses. For the central bank, that means keeping monetary policy loose enough to fend off an increased risk of deflation, or falling prices, which could lead companies to reduce hiring and curtail investment.

中国共产党领导层将今年官方的经济增长目标下调至7%左右,这将是25年来最低的增长水平。政策制定者正在试图控制经济放缓的局面,保障就业,也确保企业能获得贷款。对于央行来说,这意味着要维持足够宽松的货币政策,以抵御不断增加的通货紧缩,即物价下跌的风险,这会导致企业减少招聘,削减投资。

Since November, the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, has cut interest rates twice and given banks the freedom to lend more. Most economists expect it will further lower the amount of cash that banks must keep on reserve — a move that would also counter a trend in recent months of funds’ flowing out of the country — and to cut interest rates again.

自去年11月以来,中国的央行中国人民银行进行了两次降息并放宽了银行的放贷能力。大多数经济学家认为,央行将进一步减少银行必须持有的储备金的额度——此举还会扭转最近几个月出现的资金外流趋势,并将再次降息。

These measures appear to be having an effect, with important short-term borrowing rates in China’s money market, an important indicator of the real cost of funding for smaller banks and other financial institutions, falling to about 3 percent in the past week, down from about 5 percent in February.

这些举措似乎卓有成效,短期借款利率从2月份的5%左右下降至上周的3%左右。短期借款利率是为规模较小的银行和其他金融机构融资的实际成本的重要指标。

Haibin Zhu, the chief China economist at J.P. Morgan in Hong Kong, said he expected the central bank to take action in the next three months. “But is that sufficient to call it easing, or is it a delayed response — what in economic terms we call moving behind the curve?” he said in a phone interview. “Probably moving behind the curve, or at best staying on it.”

摩根大通(JP Morgan)驻香港的首席中国经济学家朱海斌表示,他认为央行将会在未来3个月采取行动。“但这能称得上宽松政策吗,还是说这其实是滞后的反应——从经济角度我们称之为滞后于曲线?”他在接受电话采访时说。“可能是滞后于曲线,充其量也只是跟上了曲线。”

Other efforts to stimulate growth this year include significant government spending on infrastructure. Mr. Li, the Chinese premier, said in a speech last month that the government would spend over 800 billion renminbi, or about $130 billion, on new railroad lines this year and another 800 billion renminbi on major water conservation projects.

今年刺激增长的举措还包括加大政府在基础设施方面的开支。中国总理李克强上个月发表讲话时表示,政府今年将会投资逾8000亿元人民币建造新的铁路线,另投资8000亿元人民币用于水利项目。

”March data does show that infrastructure investment accelerated, although it’s not sufficient to offset the slowdown in manufacturing and real estate,” Mr. Zhu said.

朱海斌表示,“3月的数据显示,基础设施投资有所增加,但这不足以抵消制造业及房地产的放缓。”

China’s housing market continues to struggle, with home prices falling and new construction starts declining. This has effects at home and abroad, including impacts on domestic steel production, pricing of imported iron ore from Australia and employment of sales agents at property brokerages across China.

随着房价的下跌和房屋新建工程的减少,房地产市场依旧呈现低迷态势,对国内外均造成深远影响,包括国内钢铁生产、对澳大利亚进口铁矿石定价和中国各地房地产经销商对销售代理的雇佣。

Foreign trade has been buffeted by lackluster overseas shipments and signs of even weaker demand at home. Exports of goods by value rose only 5 percent in the first three months of the year, while imports slumped 17 percent, weighed down by lower global prices for oil and other commodities.

外贸数据则在惨淡的出口和更惨淡的国内需求影响下遭受重创。一季度出口额仅增长5%,而由于全球油价及其他商品价格的下降,进口额大幅下降17%。

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