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美国反对盟国加入亚投行适得其反

更新时间:2015-3-21 8:55:35 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Washington’s Arrogance May Have Pushed Countries to Join Asian Bank
美国反对盟国加入亚投行适得其反

BEIJING — When Xi Jinping, then the newly minted Chinese leader, first broached the idea of a new Asian development bank in a public speech in 2013, few in Washington paid it much heed.

北京——当新任中国领导人在2013年的一次公开讲话中,首次透露建立一家新的亚洲开发银行的想法时,华盛顿几乎没有人注意。

But as Beijing systematically recruited longtime American allies to help fund and oversee the new bank, it became clear that the push was more than a public relations gesture to China’s Asian neighbors. It was also a direct threat to the post-World War II financial institutions led primarily by the United States, and to President Obama’s pledges to make a “pivot” to Asia in American foreign policy.

然而当北京方面有条不紊地招揽美国长期以来的盟友,帮助这家新银行进行融资和管理时,人们开始明白,这番举动不只是中国对亚洲邻国的公关姿态。它也为第二次世界大战后,主要由美国领导的金融机构带来了直接的威胁。奥巴马总统让美国的外交政策“转向”亚洲的誓言因此受到了威胁。

Now with Britain, France, Germany and Italy signing up to join the new bank, despite direct pleas from Washington to steer clear, the question is whether the Obama administration mishandled a significant challenge from China, and what it might have done differently.

现在,英国、法国、德国、意大利均同意加入这家新银行,尽管华盛顿曾直接呼吁它们不要参与。现在的问题是,奥巴马政府在应对中国发起的巨大挑战时是不是出现了失误,以及当时怎样做才更好。

“The administration made a major mistake in its opposition. It was a very shortsighted,” said Paul Haenle, director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing. “The bank was going to go ahead whether we supported it or not.”

“奥巴马政府的反对,是一个重大错误,很短视,”位于北京的卡内基-清华中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Center)主任韩磊(Paul Haenle)表示。“无论我们支不支持,这家银行都会走下去。”

The United States would have been wiser, he and others said, to temper its resentment of China’s efforts to raise its international profile and play a bigger role in global financial affairs. Some argue it may also have sought to play a role in an Asia-focused bank led by China, just as Washington expects China to contribute more to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the Washington-based lending agencies for development and monetary stability.

韩磊及其他人士评价称,美国面对中国努力提升国际地位,在全球金融事务中扮演更大角色的做法,应该克制自己的反感,这才是更明智的做法。一些人认为,美方也应该寻求,在由中国领导的这家关注亚洲的银行中扮演一定角色,就像华盛顿期待中国向世界银行(World Bank)和国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)做出更多贡献一样。世界银行和IMF是由华盛顿主导的贷款机构,目标是促进发展和维护金融稳定。

The willingness of Britain to join the China bank over American objections was an especially clear sign of China’s sophisticated strategy for winning friends, and Washington’s failure to respond effectively.

英国不顾美国的反对,表示愿意加入中国主导的这家银行,这尤其清晰地显示出中国争取朋友的策略何其精明,而华盛顿方面未能做出有效的回应。

The British chancellor, George Osborne, had made clear his desire to change Britain’s attitude toward China. The Chinese knew that he wanted to make London a platform for overseas business transacted in Chinese currency, a first step to the convertibility of the renminbi. Just two weeks after Mr. Xi’s speech on the bank, which the Chinese leader delivered in Indonesia, Mr. Osborne visited Beijing, where the courting began.

英国财政大臣乔治·奥斯本(George Osborne)明确表达了让英国改变对华态度的愿望。中国明白奥斯本希望让伦敦成为人民币海外商业交易的平台,这将是人民币走向自由兑换的第一步。习近平在印度尼西亚公开表示要建立新银行后仅仅两周,奥斯本访问北京,示好就是从那时开始的。

The confluence of Chinese and British interests led to Mr. Osborne’s announcement last week that Britain would become a founding member of the bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. American opposition was made clear, but most likely came late in the process.

中国和英国利益的交汇,促使奥斯本于上周宣布,英国将成为亚洲基础设施投资银行(Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank)的创始成员国。美国明确表示反对,但美方的表态在这个进程中可能已经太晚了。

The British decision cleared the way for other European allies that China had courted to go Beijing’s way, as well. Australia is expected to sign up in the next week, according to government officials, and South Korea is likely to follow.

英国的决定为其他欧洲盟友的转向铺平了道路,中国也在拉拢这些国家向自己靠拢。政府官员透露,澳大利亚预计会在下周加入,而韩国则可能紧随其后。

Speaking of Britain, an angry senior administration official told The Financial Times that the decision to join the bank was one more sign of “constant accommodation” of China.

奥巴马政府一位高级官员在评论英国的做法时,对英国《金融时报》(Financial Times)表示,加入这家银行的决定更像是“一贯迎合”中国的一个迹象。

One problem is that Washington did not offer much of an alternative to China’s call to inject far more funding into building roads, railroads and pipelines around Asia, much of which remains underdeveloped. There is little dispute, Mr. Haenle said, that the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have been unable to fulfill the infrastructure needs in the region.

一个问题是,亚洲大部分地区仍然相当落后,对于中国号召把远比从前更多的资金注入到亚洲各地的公路、铁路和管道建设上,华盛顿并没有提供真正的替代方案。韩磊说,世界银行和亚洲开发银行已无法满足该地区的基础设施需求,这一点毫无疑问。

“But there is a strain in Washington that if the U.S. is not in the lead, then the U.S. should not be part of it,” he said.

“但华盛顿一些人的看法是,如果事情不是由美国来领导,那么美国就不应该参与其中,”他说。

Early on, the United States should have realized that China was determined to create the bank, and that Washington should have tried to influence its creation rather than block it, analysts in Washington and Asia said.

华盛顿和亚洲的分析师说,美国一早就应该意识到中国创办这个银行的决心已定,华盛顿应该试图去影响它的创办,而不是去阻止它。

China was upset that after the 2008 financial crisis, Congress rebuffed legislation intended to increase Beijing’s voice in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Now that China was sitting on more than $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, Beijing could easily afford to finance an entirely new institution that would have a majority Chinese stake with other countries as minority shareholders, they said.

2008年金融危机后,美国国会拒绝了一项立法,令中国不快,因为该立法旨在提高北京在世界银行和国际货币基金组织的影响力。他们说,现在,中国坐拥逾3万亿美元的外汇储备,可以轻松出资组建一个全新的机构,成为其大股东,让其他国家当小股东。

Moreover, China had decided that it wanted to use its excess capacity in steel, concrete and pipes to build up neighboring economies and benefit the Chinese economy, said Laurence J. Brahm, an American who worked with Prime Minister Zhu Rongji on China’s entry to the World Trade Organization in 2001.

此外,中国想利用其在钢铁、水泥和管道方面的过剩产能来建设周边的经济体,造福于中国经济,龙安志(Laurence J. Brahm)说;他是美国人,曾为中国2001年加入世贸组织一事与朱镕基总理有所交集。

“China’s economy will benefit from the export of its own labor to build the infrastructure in the region,” he said.

“出口中国的劳动力,在该地区修建基础设施,这将令中国经济受惠,”他说。

That China would use the bank for its own pet projects in Asia and try to knit together the poorer countries of Southeast and Central Asia into an economic sphere of influence was one of the main worries in Washington.

中国将利用亚投行在亚洲开展自己喜欢的项目,并尝试将东南亚和中亚较贫穷的国家组建成一个在其影响力之下的经济圈,这是华盛顿的主要担忧之一。

Even so, the administration could have adopted a positive approach. It had the option of agreeing that investing in infrastructure was needed in Asia, and that China, flush with cash, had the ability to fill the gap, said Matthew Goodman, senior adviser on Asian economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

即便如此,美国政府也可以采取积极的态度。美国国际战略研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)高级顾问马修·古德曼(Matthew Goodman)说,政府可以选择赞同这个观点:亚洲需要在基础设施建设上投资,而中国现金充裕,拥有填补这个缺口的能力。

From that more supportive position, Washington would have been in a better position to try to shape the new bank’s rules on lending, the environment and transparency, he said.

他说,华盛顿如果采取这种支持的态度,就会处在一个更好的位置上,可以帮助塑造这个新银行的贷款规则、环境和透明度。

China’s Finance Ministry has told prospective members that it will strive to make the new bank a first-class operation that will manage to deliver projects more efficiently than the World Bank or the Asian Development Bank.

中国财政部已告诉准成员国,自己将努力将亚投行建设成为一流银行,使其开展项目的效率高于世界银行或亚洲开发银行。

To that end, the Chinese have asked a lawyer who worked at the World Bank for over 30 years, Natalie Lichtenstein, to help prepare the bank’s charter. Such people are important to the bank’s success, said Fred Hu, the founder of Primavera Capital, a private equity firm in Beijing, who early in his career worked at the World Bank.

为此,中国已经聘请了曾在世界银行供职30多年的律师娜塔莉·里奇汀斯坦(Natalie Lichtenstein)来帮助亚投行制定章程。亚投行要想获得成功,吸纳这样人才非常重要,北京私募股权公司春华资本集团(Primavera Capital Group)的创始人胡祖六(Fred Hu)说;他早年曾供职于世界银行。

“The last thing China and A.I.I.B. needs is that some of the fears expressed by Washington are validated,” he said. “Attracting world-class talent is absolutely crucial.”

“中国和亚投行最不希望发生的事情就是,华盛顿表示的担忧成为了现实,“他说。“吸引世界一流人才绝对至关重要。”

And mindful of reputation, the Finance Ministry has deflected an interest in bank membership from Iran, saying it might consider Iran in a second round, but not as a founding member.

考虑到声誉问题,中国财政部已经婉拒了伊朗成为亚投行创始成员国的兴趣,表示可能会在第二轮考虑该国。

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