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美联储称考虑最早6月加息,不再提“耐心”

更新时间:2015-3-20 9:19:22 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Fed Signals It May Increase Interest Rates by Midyear
美联储称考虑最早6月加息,不再提“耐心”

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday moved to the verge of raising interest rates for the first time since the economy fell into recession more than seven years ago, even as officials suggested the Fed might not pull the trigger until well into the second half of the year.

华盛顿——周三,就在官员们表示美联储(Federal Reserved)或许会等到下半年再开展行动时,美联储已经走到了上调利率的边缘,这将是经济陷入衰退后七年多来的首次加息。

In a statement released after a two-day meeting of its policy-making committee, the Fed said that it would consider raising its benchmark rate as early as June, and it removed from the statement a promise that it would be “patient.”

美联储在其决策委员会结束了两天的会议后发表声明称,美联储将会考虑最早在6月上调基准利率。美联储在声明中去掉了将会保持“耐心”的承诺。

Yet the Fed tempered that message on Wednesday, including the release of economic forecasts by its senior officials that showed they now think the unemployment rate can still fall significantly without triggering higher inflation. That conveyed an impression that Fed officials may feel less urgency about raising interest rates so soon.

美联储在周三对这个信息进行了缓和,比如高层官员公布了经济预测,说明他们现在认为失业率仍旧能够大幅降低,而不会引发进一步的通货膨胀。这给人一种印象,即美联储官员可能没有感到那么紧迫,需要立即上调利率。

“Just because we removed the word patient from the statement doesn’t mean we’re going to be impatient,” Janet L. Yellen, the Fed’s chairwoman, said at a news conference after the statement’s release. Ms. Yellen said the Fed was not declaring an intention to raise rates in June, “although we can’t rule that out.”

美联储主席珍妮特·L·耶伦(Janet L. Yellen)在声明发布后召开新闻发布会表示,“我们在声明中没有提到耐心一词,这并不意味着我们很急迫。”耶伦表示,美联储并不是要表明在6月加息的意向,“尽管我们无法排除这一可能性。”

Ms. Yellen’s remarks suggested that borrowers have a few more months to take advantage of exceptionally low interest rates on mortgages and car loans, while savers face a few more months of very meager returns on their low-risk investments. And even after the Fed moves to raise its key interest rate, borrowing costs may well remain comparatively low well into the future.

耶伦的讲话说明,借款人可以利用利率极低的这几个月还房贷和车贷,而储蓄者在低风险投资中得到微薄回报的日子,还要再延续几个月。而且即便美联储采取行动,上调关键利率,借贷成本在未来可能仍旧会保持相对较低的水平。

Investors, meanwhile, celebrated like the recipients of a last-minute reprieve.

与此同时,投资者纷纷庆贺,就像是在最后时刻得到缓刑的罪犯一样。

The S&P 500 stock index rose 1.2 percent to close at 2,099.50. Bond prices also jumped, driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond to its largest one-day decline since October. The yield fell 0.11 points to 1.945 percent.

标准普尔500指数(S&P500)上涨1.2%,收于2099.5点。债券价格也出现暴涨,促使10年期基准债券的收益率达到了自去年10月以来的最大单日跌幅。收益率下降0.11个百分点,降至1.945%。

Evan Schnidman, chief executive of Prattle Analytics, which performs data analysis on central bank communications, said the Fed surprised many investors because the public remarks of Fed officials over the last year have consistently pointed to an earlier start date for rate increases than the Fed’s official statements.

Prattle Analytics是一家对央行信息进行数据分析的公司。该公司首席执行官埃文·施尼德曼(Evan Schnidman)表示,美联储让很多投资者感到震惊,因为美联储官员在过去一年中的公开讲话始终表明,美联储会在官方声明提到的加息日期前开始上调利率。

“Although they are individually eager to normalize policy, they are collectively reticent about the possibility of raising rates prematurely,” Mr. Schnidman said.

施尼德曼表示,“虽然他们个人渴望推动政策正常化,但他们在提早上调利率的可能性上集体保持沉默。”

The march toward higher rates may be slow but it still looks all but certain to begin at some point this year. That reflects both the Fed’s optimism that the economy no longer needs quite as much help from central bank stimulus and a sense of fatigue with the Fed’s long-running campaign to encourage faster economic growth.

上调利率的进程可能会比较缓慢,但看起来几乎可以肯定的是,这个进程将在今年的某个时间开始。这反映了美联储的乐观态度,他们认为美国经济对央行刺激措施的需求已经不是那么大,还反映出美联储在这场加快经济增速的长期行动中已经显出疲态。

Many Americans are still struggling to find good jobs, while the sluggish pace of inflation suggests the economy still has room to grow more quickly without setting off alarm bells that prices will escalate beyond a comfortable level. The Fed acknowledged in its statement that growth had “moderated somewhat” in recent months, and that inflation had sagged even further below its 2 percent target, a level most economists consider appropriate to a healthy economy.

很多美国人仍然很难找到好工作,而通胀放缓的事实说明经济仍有快速增长的空间,而不会拉响警报,即物价上升至令人无法承受的水平。美联储在其声明中承认,最近几个月,经济增长“略微放缓”,通胀水平甚至进一步下跌至2%的目标以下,大多数经济学家认为通胀率2%的经济属于健康水平。

There are also growing concerns that the stronger dollar, which has been rising in part on expectations that the Fed will raise rates while other central banks are cutting them, will hurt American exports and reduce corporate investment. The rise of the dollar also appears to be exacerbating the weakness of inflation. When inflation is too low, the economy tends to perform below its capability, just as it risks becoming overheated when prices escalate at too fast a pace.

人们日益担心,美元走强会对美国出口产业造成不利影响,减少企业投资。美元上涨部分源于以下期待,即美联储会在其他央行都在降息的时候上调利率。美元上涨似乎加剧了通胀率的走低。当通胀率过低时,经济往往会无法发挥其潜能,就像物价上涨过快时,经济就存在过热的风险。

The forecasts published by the Fed showed 15 of the 17 members of the policy-making committee expect to raise the Fed’s benchmark rate this year. Those projections showed that on average they expect two hikes, to roughly 0.75 percent. The Fed has held short-term rates near zero since December 2008.

美联储公布的预测显示,在决策委员会的17名成员中,有15人预计美联储会在今年上调基准利率。这些预测显示,他们平均预计会出现两次提升,升到0.75%左右。自2008年12月以来,美联储一直把短期利率维持在接近零的水平。

“I think some of the headwinds that have long been holding the economy back are beginning to recede,” Ms. Yellen said at her news conference. Monetary policy exerts a gradual influence on economic conditions, so the Fed must anticipate the trajectory of growth in making policy. Ms. Yellen said officials are inclined to raise rates because they expect continued labor market improvement and a rebound in inflation that would move it closer to its desirable level.

“我认为有些长期以来一直阻碍经济发展的因素正在开始消失,”耶伦在她的新闻发布会上说。货币政策对经济状况的影响是渐进性的,所以美联储在制定政策时,必须对增长轨迹进行预测。耶伦表示,官员都倾向于提高利率,因为他们认为劳动力市场会继续改善,通胀水平将出现反弹,从而更接近其理想水平。

In place of its recent promise to remain “patient” in deciding when to start raising rates, the committee’s statement said that the Fed would act “when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.”

委员会的声明没有提到最近在决定何时开始上调利率方面保持“耐心”的承诺,而是声称,美联储会在“看到劳动力市场出现进一步改善,并有理由相信通胀水平将在中期回到2%的目标时”采取行动。

The statement said the Fed “remains unlikely” to act at its next meeting, in April, turning the attention of investors to subsequent meetings. A number of analysts said they viewed the Fed’s September meeting as the most likely date.

声明表示,美联储“仍然不太可能”在将于4月举行的下次会议上采取行动,从而把投资者的注意力转向了随后的会议。一些分析师表示,他们认为美联储最有可能在9月的会议上采取行动。

“While the Fed chose to explicitly drop the patient qualifier, the implicit patience remains intact,” Michael Dolega, senior economist at TD Bank, wrote in a note to clients after the release of the statement. “The Fed does not yet appear to be convinced that the economy can withstand higher interest rates at this point, especially in an environment of weak external demand and a surging dollar.”

“美联储选择明确地去掉‘耐心’这个限定词,但其中隐含的耐心仍未改变,”道明银行集团(TD Bank Group)资深经济学师迈克尔·多莱加(Michael Dolega)在声明发布后写给客户的文件中说。“美联储目前似乎还不确定,此时经济能够承受较高的利率,尤其是在外部需求疲软和美元升值的环境下。”

The most striking changes Wednesday were in the Fed’s quarterly economic forecasts. Officials said they now expected economic output to expand by 2.3 to 2.7 percent in 2015, a downgrade from their December estimate of 2.6 to 3.0 percent. Forecasts for 2016 and 2017 were also shaded down, the latest instance in the Fed’s post-crisis pattern of repeatedly downgrading its forecasts.

周三最引人注目的变化在美联储的季度经济预测之中。官员表示,他们目前预计2015年的经济产出将扩大2.3%到2.7%,与他们12月预计的2.6%和3.0%相比有所降低;2016和2017年的预测也出现降低。危机过后,美联储经常下调其预测数据,此举便是最新例证。

The changes move the Fed’s outlook closer to the expectations that have been priced into bond markets in recent months, rewarding investors who bet that the Fed was once again allowing its hopes to get ahead of the economic data.

这些变化,让美联储的未来展望更接近人们的预期,而最近几个月的债券市场已经先期用价格体现了这种预期,那些打赌美联储会再次让自己的期望超过经济数据的投资者,因此获得了回报。

“It is now clear the bond market is not moving toward the Fed; the Fed is moving toward the bond market,” wrote Tim Duy, a professor of economics at the University of Oregon and a close watcher of the Fed. “By moving toward the markets on the path of rate hikes, the Fed acknowledges that they are eager to let this recovery run on.”

“现在很清楚,债券市场没有向美联储靠拢;是美联储在向债券市场靠拢,”俄勒冈大学(University of Oregon)经济学教授、密切关注美联储动向的蒂姆·迪伊(Tim Duy)写道。“美联储通过上调利率的方式朝市场靠拢,这是在表明他们非常希望此次经济复苏能够继续下去。”

Alongside the debate about the timing of rate hikes, there is growing concern that whenever the Fed moves, it will disrupt financial markets. At a minimum, The Fed is on track to be the first major central bank to start raising interest rates, and it is also intentionally introducing greater uncertainty. Wednesday’s statement marked the end of the Fed’s crisis-era practice of providing explicit guidance about its plans for interest rates.

在对上调利率的时机进行争论时,人们也愈发担心美联储一旦采取行动,就会扰乱金融市场。至少,美联储有望成为第一个开始上调利率的重要央行,而且它还有意地表明了这里存在更大的不确定性。周三的声明标志着美联储结束了危机时期的做法,即就为其利率计划提供明确的指导。

The hedge fund manager Ray Dalio cautioned in a note to clients last week that if the Fed did tighten too soon, it would have little ability to correct the mistake because it has already exhausted the standard arsenal of monetary policy.

上周,对冲基金经理雷·戴利奥(Ray Dalio)在给客户的文件中警告称,如果美联储太快收紧,就会失去纠错的能力,因为货币政策的标准武器已经都用完了。

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