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更新时间:2015-3-20 9:11:25 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Warnings Raised of a Greek Exit From the Euro

PARIS — Just a few weeks ago, fears that Greece might exit the euro union subsided when Europe extended its financial bailout. But as a new war of words escalates between Athens and its creditors, talk of a “Grexit” is heating up.


In the last several days, European and American banks, think tanks and ratings agencies have issued a fresh round of warnings and studies calculating the damage to the currency union if Greece were to default on its debts or stop using the euro.


Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the head of the Eurogroup body of European finance ministers, this week also raised the possibility of restricting the flow of money in and out of Greece to make sure the country has enough money to pay its debts.

欧元集团(Eurogroup)主席耶霍恩·戴塞尔布卢姆(Jeroen Dijsselbloem)本周也提出了一种可能性:限制资金流入和流出希腊,从而确保该国有足够的资金来偿还债务。欧元集团由欧元区国家的财长组成。

Driving those concerns is an increasingly venomous standoff between Athens and nearly every other country in the 19-member currency union — especially Germany.


One of the main sticking points is Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s pushing ahead with an anti-austerity agenda that creditors say conflicts with pledges he made on Feb. 20 in winning an agreement to let Greece extend its 240 billion euro, or $254 billion, bailout program for four months. That deal was crucial to giving Greece the ability to unlock loan money it badly needs. But so far, no funds have been forthcoming.

其中一个主要症结是希腊总理亚历克西斯·齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)正在推动反紧缩议程。债权人认为,这和他2月20日做出的承诺相冲突,而当时齐普拉斯之所以许下诺言,是为了让2400亿欧元(约合1.6万亿元人民币)的救援计划能展期四个月。这项妥协至关重要,可以让希腊获得急需的贷款资金。不过到目前为止,还没有任何资金到位。

On Wednesday, Greece’s Parliament approved a number of anti-poverty measures despite warnings from creditors that the legislation ran contrary to the overall package of changes Greece had agreed last month to adopt.


And it probably did not help Greece’s debt diplomacy that members of Mr. Tsipras’s Syriza party were among the thousands of European demonstrators in Frankfurt on Wednesday protesting, amid tear gas, European Central Bank policies.

此外,周三有数千名欧洲民众聚集在法兰克福,冒着催泪瓦斯抗议欧洲中央银行(European Central Bank)的政策。抗议民众中包括齐普拉斯所在政党激进左翼联盟(Syriza)的成员,这一点恐怕对希腊的债务外交有弊无利。

Athens has become so politically isolated, even as its coffers run dry, that Mr. Tsipras will be trying to salvage relationships on Thursday and Friday in Brussels at a European Union summit meeting.


He has persuaded Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany; President François Hollande of France; the European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi; and others to discuss the Greek crisis directly with him. Whether he will clinch a deal to unlock funds and prevent a wider crisis remains to be seen.

他已经说服德国总理安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)、法国总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德(François Hollande)、欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi),以及其他一些人和他直接讨论希腊危机。他能否赢得共识、获得资金,从而阻止危机扩大,这些仍有待观察。

Europe has “an overwhelming will to keep Greece in the eurozone,” Pierre Moscovici, the European Commission’s financial affairs chief, told a German newspaper this week. But, he added, “we won’t keep Greece in the eurozone at any price.”

欧洲“非常想让希腊留在欧元区”,欧盟委员会(European Commission)负责经济和金融事务的委员皮埃尔·莫斯科维奇(Pierre Moscovici)本周对一家德国报纸说。但是,他表示,“我们不会为此不惜任何代价。”

European leaders have fast run out of patience with Greece, especially after Mr. Tsipras last week renewed demands that Germany pay Greece billions in reparations from World War II. And Greece’s outspoken finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, has reportedly alienated some of his eurozone counterparts by changing his position several times during negotiations.

欧洲领导人已经迅速失去了对希腊的耐心,尤其是齐普拉斯上周再次要求德国,向希腊支付数百亿美元的二战赔款之后。希腊直言不讳的财政部长亚尼斯·瓦鲁法基斯(Yanis Varoufakis)据说曾在谈判中多次改变立场,因此疏远了欧元区的其他一些财长。

Members of his Syriza party are also agitated over a recent opulent photo shoot of Mr. Varoufakis in the magazine Paris Match.

《巴黎竞赛》(Paris Match)杂志近期刊出了瓦鲁法基斯的奢华照片,令他在激进左翼联盟的同伴情绪激动。

On Tuesday, Greece further angered its creditors by refusing to update them on progress it had made since the February deal to put in place economic changes required to free up around 7 billion in funds from Greece’s bailout program. Instead, Mr. Tsipras insisted on waiting to speak directly to Ms. Merkel and others about it in Brussels.


Without the bailout money, the Greek government has little cash left to meet payments owed to creditors for the rest of this month.


The government teeters precipitously close to a default. On Friday, Greece must reimburse 350 million in loans to the International Monetary Fund and roll over 1.6 billion in short-term debt.

希腊政府处在违约的边缘。周五时,希腊必须向国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)偿还3.5亿欧元贷款,并续借16亿欧元的短期债务。

Tax receipts have fallen by more than 1 billion since the Syriza party came to power in January. In the face of the cash squeeze, the state has said it might have to borrow money from national pension and farmers’ funds to avoid default, and withhold back payments owed to hospitals and other state entities.


Several of Greece’s largest companies are also privately complaining that the state has not paid them millions of euros owed for construction and other state contracts since December.


A number of large and medium Greek companies have started withdrawing cash overnight from their Greek bank accounts to banks in London, Luxembourg and elsewhere, and returning the money in the morning to finance their business operations, according to Athens-based analysts, bankers and Greek company officials aware of the transfers. All declined to speak for attribution.


The practice — which is legal and was last used widely by Greek companies and multinationals with Greek operations in 2012, when fears of a Greek euro exit ran high — is meant to protect the companies’ euro holdings in case capital controls are imposed overnight or over a weekend in Greece, or in the event of some other financial calamity, these people said.


Greek officials have insisted that capital controls will not be imposed in Greece — or will be applied only if the situation grows dire. But Mr. Dijsselbloem raised the issue again on Tuesday in an interview with BNR Nieuwsradio of the Netherlands, saying: “It’s been explored what should happen if a country gets into deep trouble — that doesn’t immediately have to be an exit scenario.”

希腊官员坚持称,希腊不会施行资本管制——或者说只有在形势变得非常严峻时才采用。但戴塞尔布卢姆本周二接受荷兰电台BNR Nieuwsradio采访时又提到了这个问题,他说:“我们探讨过,如果一个国家陷入大麻烦应该发生什么——不一定马上就到退出的地步。”

He cited “radical measures” taken in Cyprus, where banks “were closed for a while and capital flows within and out of the country were tied to all kinds of conditions.”


Mr. Tsipras has insisted that Greece does not want to leave the eurozone, and European officials have chimed in to insist that the currency bloc must stay together. The ultimate goal is for Greece to get a 7 billion loan installment to tide it over until summer.


Greece would then hope to return as quickly as possible to borrowing in international financial markets so that it needed no further aid from its European partners, according to a senior Greek finance official, who was not authorized to speak publicly. But Greece would need to overcome a sizable credibility gap for that to happen — and to quell the Grexit talk.


Mr. Moscovici, in his interview with German news media, said a Greek departure from the single currency would raise the question of whether the eurozone could remain a viable currency union. “Everyone would ask, ‘Which member state is next?’” he said.


Last week, Fitch Ratings warned that the “eurozone would suffer a significant shock if Greece left.” The Moody’s ratings agency was more blunt. “Even if the immediate financial impact was limited, the exit of a member state from a union explicitly designed to be indivisible would inevitably raise questions about what pressures might cause other countries to take the same route,” it said in a new assessment.

上周,惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)警告称,“如果希腊离开,欧元区将遭受巨大冲击。”穆迪(Moody’s)评级机构在一份新的评估报告中,更加直截了当地表示:“即使眼前的财务影响很有限,但欧元区被明确设计为一个不可分割的联盟,所以当一个成员国退出时,必然会引发一个问题:怎样的压力可能会导致其他国家走上同样的道路?”

Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note on Tuesday that the faster that Greece’s situation deteriorates, the greater the chance it may exit the union. “The economy is now shrinking, tax revenues are falling short of targets, bank deposits are leaving the system and political volatility seems on the rise, both domestically and in the relations with official lenders,” the bank said. “We don’t think that Greece would want to exit the euro. Yet a misstep big enough may force the exit.”

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的分析师在本周二的一份研究报告表示,希腊形势恶化的速度越快,它退出欧元区的可能性越大。“经济正在萎缩,税收收入未能达到目标,存款脱离银行体系,政治动荡似乎呈现上升趋势,这既包括希腊国内,也包括它与官方贷款机构之间的关系,”该银行表示。“我们认为希腊不想退出欧元区。然而,一旦出现足够大的失误,希腊可能就不得不退出了。”

But back in Athens, Mr. Tsipras remained defiant.


Addressing lawmakers before the vote Wednesday on a “humanitarian crisis bill,” which promises free electricity and food aid for thousands of very poor Greek families, Mr. Tsipras condemned “those who dare to write a letter and send it by email, describing the bill for the humanitarian crisis as a unilateral move.”