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欧元下跌,有人欢喜有人愁

更新时间:2015-3-13 9:05:39 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Delight or Dread as Euro Falls
欧元下跌,有人欢喜有人愁

PARIS — For Hervé Montjotin, chief executive of the French trucking and logistics group Norbert Dentressangle, the euro’s steep plunge against the dollar could not be more welcome.

巴黎——对于法​​国货运与物流集团Norbert Dentressangle的首席执行官埃尔韦·蒙特约(Hervé Montjotin)来说,欧元兑美元汇率的大幅下挫是件天大的好事。

In the months since his company bought Jacobson, an American contract logistics company, the currency’s decline — down about 23 percent over the past year — has meant a windfall when dollars earned in the United States are translated back into euros.

他的公司收购了美国物流承包商雅各布森(Jacobson)之后的几个月里,欧元汇率走弱,在过去的一年里跌幅约为23%,这意味着在美国赚的美元折算成欧元后,让公司得到了暴利。

“We bought a profitable business, and that business now makes 20 percent more in euros than when we got it,” he said. “We’ve either been very skilled or very lucky.”

“我们收购了一家盈利不错的公司,现在它赚的欧元,比我们收购它时多出20%,”他说。“我们如果不是非常精明,就是非常幸运。”

Millions of businesspeople on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as tourists planning trips in one direction or the other, are now watching with delight or dread as Europe’s main currency drops ever closer to parity with the dollar.

大西洋两岸数以百万计的商人,以及计划去对岸旅行的游客,现在或高兴或惊骇地看着这个欧洲主要货币兑美元的汇率降至更接近于一比一的水平。

On Wednesday afternoon in Paris, the euro was trading at $1.0567. The currency has declined nearly 13 percent in the first months of 2015 alone and is at its lowest level since early 2003. The euro peaked at almost $1.60 in April 2008, as the European Central Bank was warning of impending interest rate increases despite the financial crisis that was beginning to be felt in the United States.

本周三下午,巴黎的交易价是1欧元兑1.0567美元。仅在2015年的前几个月,欧元就下跌了近13%,创下2003年初以来的最低水平。欧元汇率曾在2008年4月达到约1:1.60美元的峰值,当时尽管金融危机已经开始在美国崭露头角,但欧洲央行表示将会加息。

The current plunge reflects differences in economic outlook, interest rates and monetary policies in Europe and the United States that in many ways favor the Americans — unless they are American companies trying to sell their wares to Europeans.

汇率的暴跌反映了欧洲和美国在经济前景、利率和货币政策上的差异,其中很多方面都有利于美国人——希望把产品销往欧洲的美国公司除外。

For the United States, which already runs a substantial trade deficit with the rest of the world, a weaker euro might only widen that gap, as German cars, Spanish wines and French luxury goods become more price-competitive. Chad Moutray, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers in Washington, warned that the strong dollar was “a major headwind” for American companies and said that executives were “less happy” than they were a few months ago.

美国与其他国家之间的贸易赤字已经相当巨大,欧元贬值可能只会拉大这一缺口,因为德国汽车、西班牙葡萄酒和法国奢侈消费品在价格上变得更具竞争力。华盛顿美国全国制造商协会(National Association of Manufacturers)的首席经济师查德·穆特雷(Chad Moutray)警告称,美元走强对于美国公司是“一个主要不利因素”,他还表示,和几个月前相比,美国高管们“不太舒心”。

“People recognize that the dollar is strengthening for the right reasons,” Mr. Moutray said, citing the relatively strong United States economy and the signals that the Federal Reserve may be closer to raising interest rates — a lure to foreign investors and a further spur to the dollar — even as the European Central Bank is keeping interest rates at historical lows. Still, he added, “the dollar is getting to a level where it’s harder to compete against the Europeans.”

“大家知道,美元走强是正常的,”穆特雷说,因为美国经济本来就比较强劲,而且美联储发出了可能升息的信号——这对外国投资者是个诱惑,也进一步刺激美元升值,而欧洲央行则是继续将利率维持在历史低点。不过,他说,“美元已经升到了一个比较难以与欧洲人竞争的水平。”

The happier Americans would be tourists, who during the coming spring break or summer months will find that a meal in a fancy French restaurant or a Mediterranean beach holiday costs much less than it would have a year ago. Europeans visiting New York or California, of course, will find that their euros won’t stretch nearly as far this year.

美国的旅游者则会变得比较开心,在接下来的春假或夏季,他们会发现,在一家豪华法式餐厅吃饭,或到地中海海滩度假的价格会远远低于一年之前。当然,前往纽约或加州的欧洲人则会发现手中的欧元花得太快。

The sagging euro is only part of the story. The dollar is on its biggest surge since the mid-1990s — up 19 percent over the past 12 months against a basket of global currencies that includes the Japanese yen and the British pound.

相对于美元走弱的不只是欧元。在过去12个月里,美元出现了1990年代中期以来最大的一波升势——相对日元和英镑在内全球多种货币,美元涨幅高达19%。

But the euro is the standout. And it has further room to fall, in many analysts’ view. “The market is starting to get parity in its sights,” Lee Hardman, a currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London, said, estimating that a one-to-one exchange rate could be reached within weeks. “The momentum is clearly for a weaker euro.”

但其中最引人注目的是欧元。很多分析师认为,它还有进一步下跌的空间。“市场开始发现一比一的情况就在眼前了,”三菱东京日联银行(Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubish iUFJ)货币经济师李·哈德曼(Lee Hardman)表示。他估计在几周内,欧元兑美元就会达到一比一的汇率。“欧元贬值的趋势相当明显。”

Part of the euro’s downturn stems from the existential questions that continue to dog the currency bloc, as dramatized by Greece’s continuing struggle with its creditors over revised bailout terms.

欧元下滑的部分原因在于:这种货币的生存能力仍然是个问题,而希腊对于修订后的救援条款仍未与债权人达成妥协则进一步突显了这个问题。

The bigger factor, though, is the impact of the European Central Bank’s program, which began this week, to buy 1.1 trillion in bonds by September 2016, while also holding its official interest rates at low, or in some cases even negative, levels. Those policies are meant to stoke the economy, but they are prompting global investors to seek better places to get a return on their money — like dollar-based stocks and bonds.

但更大的因素在于欧洲央行本周开始的计划:在2016年9月前购买1.1万亿的债券,同时将其官方利率保持在低水平,有些情况下甚至采用负利率。这些政策的目的是刺激经济,但却推动全球投资者转向可以获得更多回报的地方——比如基于美元的股票和债券。

A Duke/CFO Magazine survey of United States companies published on Wednesday found that around two-thirds of the big American exporters polled reported a negative impact from the strong dollar.

杜克大学《首席财务官》杂志(Duke/CFO Magazine)本周三发表了一项针对美国大型出口商的调查,称大约三分之二的受访者都表示,美元走强给他们带来了不利影响。

“We are in a midst of an ugly contest to see whether the eurozone, Japan or Canada can depreciate the most against the U.S. dollar, and China is probably next,” Campbell R. Harvey, a Fuqua School of Business professor, said in a statement accompanying the survey. “U.S. exporters are being punished by these competitive depreciations, and this will lead to lower profits and less employment.”

“我们置身在一场丑陋的比赛之中,看看在欧元区、日本和加拿大之中谁的货币对美元贬值幅度会最大,下一个参与进来的可能就是中国了,”富库商学院(Fuqua School of Business)教授坎贝尔·H·哈维(Campbell R. Harvey)在这项调查的导语中说。“这种贬值会增加他们商品的竞争力,美国出口商正在因此蒙受损失,而这也将导致利润和就业岗位减少。”

If the strong dollar does continue to pose those sorts of economic threats, of course, the Fed might alter its thinking about when to raise interest rates. So far, Janet L. Yellen, the Fed chairwoman, has said that she sees factors like the strong dollar and weak oil price to be largely balanced.

如果美元走强对经济继续构成这些威胁,美联储当然就有可能改变加息时间。美联储主席珍妮特·L·耶伦(Janet L. Yellen)迄今一直表示,她认为美元走强、原油价格疲软这些因素在很大程度上保持了平衡。

But for the struggling eurozone, where unemployment is still averaging above 11 percent and where economies have stalled in most of the currency union’s 19 member countries, there is much to recommend a weaker euro.

但是,在陷入困境的欧元区,平均失业率仍高于11%,它共有19个成员国,其中大多数的经济都停滞不前,因此这里有很多人愿意让欧元贬值。

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