您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 商业 >> 正文

应对经济下行压力,亚洲国家忙降息

更新时间:2015-3-13 8:48:37 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Asia Rushes to Lower Rates, but Maybe Not Fast Enough
应对经济下行压力,亚洲国家忙降息

HONG KONG — Central banks across Asia are racing to cut interest rates, but they may not be doing it fast enough to stave off economic malaise.

香港——亚洲各国央行竞相降息,但他们可能降得还不够快,不足以避免经济萎靡不振的前景。

The problem is weak inflation. Policy makers appear to have been surprised by how slowly prices are rising, and the slowdown is starting to weigh on economic growth across the region. If prices drop for too long, companies invest less and people’s pay shrinks.

目前的问题是通货膨胀率太低。政策制定者们似乎对价格上涨速度之慢感到意外,通胀速度放缓已开始拖累整个地区的经济增长。如果价格长时间持续下降,企业减少投资,工人的薪水下降。

Asia is not experiencing such outright deflation yet, but the risks are rising. Inflation began weakening last year in the region, with the drastic drop in the global prices of oil and other commodities. Those declines now appear to be spreading throughout the Asian economy, and growth is slowing as a result.

亚洲目前还没有经历这种全面的通缩,但风险正在上升。随着石油和其他大宗商品的全球价格大幅下降,亚洲的通货膨胀率去年开始变缓。商品价格的下跌现在看来已向整个亚洲经济蔓延,其结果是经济增长速度放缓。

“Asian central banks in general have been very relaxed in recent years about the economic outlook and risks around price stability,” Frederic Neumann, the co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC, said on Thursday in a telephone interview. “China is an obvious example where deflation pressures have taken hold, but if you look everywhere from Korea to Southeast Asia, inflation is coming off much more rapidly than expected.”

汇丰银行亚洲经济研究联席主管雷德里克·诺伊曼(Frederic Neumann)周四接受电话采访时说,“亚洲各国央行总地来说,对经济前景和有关物价稳定的风险近年来非常镇定自若。中国是一个明显的例子,通缩的压力在那里已很明显,但如果看一下从韩国到东南亚的所有地方,通胀下降的速度远远超过预期。”

South Korea’s central bank on Thursday reduced its benchmark rate to a low of 1.75 percent, a day after Thailand reduced rates for the first time in a year. Last week, India lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 7.5 percent, with the central bank saying the cut, its second between scheduled policy meetings, had been tied to easing inflation and weakness in the economy. In recent months, China has cut interest rates twice and freed its banks to lend more.

韩国央行周四将其基准利率降低至1.75%,一天前,泰国做出一年来的首次降息。上周,印度将其基准利率下调了0.25个百分点至7.5%,这是印度央行在定期举行的政策会议之间的第二次降息,央行表示调低基准利率与通胀率下降和经济疲软有关。近几个月来,中国已连续两次降息,并允许银行投放更多的贷款。

The rush to lower rates in Asia is notable because the region is breaking with tradition and moving in a direction opposite to that of the United States. With the American economy rebounding smoothly and the job market appearing increasingly healthy, the United States Federal Reserve is expected to begin raising interest rates. In previous years, many central banks in Asia have tended to align their monetary policy with the Fed’s.

亚洲争相降低利率的情况值得注意,因为该地区正在打破传统,走朝着与美国相反的方向行动。随着美国经济的平稳回升,就业市场表现越来越好,美国联邦储备委员会预计将开始提高利率。在过去几年中,亚洲不少央行都倾向于将其货币政策与美联储的保持同步。

That they are now moving in the opposite direction “brings home the strength of the disinflationary force that’s gripping Asia,” Mr. Neumann said. “It’s relentless.”

诺伊曼说,现在他们正在朝着相反的方向行动,“清楚地表明了牵制亚洲经济的反通胀力量之强。这种力量丝毫没有减弱。”

In China, data released this week showed a sharp deceleration in the already slowing economy, raising the pressure on policy makers to do more to stimulate growth. But China’s central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, defends his response.

中国本周公布的数据显示,已经放缓的经济再次出现急剧减速,增加了政策制定者为刺激经济增长采取更多措施的压力。但中国央行行长周小川为已经采取的回应做辩解。

“There must be prudence,” Mr. Zhou said to reporters in Beijing on Thursday. The bank’s actions so far, he said, were “maintaining appropriate liquidity in the financial markets, and they haven’t overstepped the bounds.”

周小川周四在北京对记者说“要慎重”。他说,央行至今所采取的行动“总体上保持了金融市场上流动性适度,没有超出范畴”。

His approach, he added, “remains unchanged, as steady and neutral.”

他补充说,央行的作法“仍旧是稳健的、中性的”。

In China’s case, the picture is complicated because the country is still moving forward with several overhauls to its financial system. Mr. Zhou said Thursday that the government would introduce the country’s first deposit insurance program in the first half of this year.

中国的情况颇为复杂,因为中国仍在推进金融系统的几项改革。周小川在周四表示,政府将在今年上半年推出全国首个存款保险制度。

He also reiterated a pledge to deregulate interest rates charged by the country’s banks. Limits on some of those rates have already been lifted, although deposit rates on savings accounts remain capped.

他还重申了放开中国的银行利率浮动空间的承诺。银行某些利率的限制已经解除,但对储蓄账户的存款利率仍有限制。

In statements released after they moved to cut rates, the central banks of both South Korea and Thailand cited the slowdown in China — previously the main engine of growth in the region and a major trading partner of both countries — as a reason for their decisions.

在伴随韩国央行和泰国央行采取降低利率措施的声明中,都提到了中国经济增长放缓是他们做出决定的理由,中国过去一直是亚洲地区经济增长的主要引擎,也是这两个国家的主要贸易伙伴。

There are signs that China’s own recent easing actions, which since November have included two interest-rate cuts and a lowering of the amount of cash that banks are required to keep on reserve, have resulted in more lending. China’s new credit growth in February was stronger than economists expected, with new local-currency loans rising 14.3 percent from a year earlier to 1 trillion renminbi, or $165 billion, according to figures released on Thursday.

有迹象表明,中国最近的宽松行动已导致了更多的借贷,这些行动包括自去年11月以来的两次降息、以及对银行现金储备要求的降低。中国二月份的新增信贷增速明显高于经济学家的预期,据周四公布的数字,人民币新贷款额比去年同期增加了14.3%,达到1万亿元,相当于1650亿美元。

But in China, as with elsewhere in Asia, being too neutral for too long may have led to problems. “Intensified policy easing can help cushion, but unlikely reverse, the downtrend in China’s real economic growth,” Tao Wang, the chief China economist at UBS, wrote Thursday in a research report.

但是在中国、与在亚洲其他地区一样,政策长期过于中性可能会导致问题。瑞银(UBS)首席中国经济学家王涛周四在一份研究报告中写道,“加强政策宽松能帮助缓解、但不太可能逆转中国实体经济增长的下行趋势。”

Part of the problem is that the real cost of credit in China, after factoring in inflation, remains persistently high despite the recent easing measures.

问题的部分原因是,中国的实际信贷成本,在扣除通胀等因素外,仍持续偏高,尽管有近期的宽松措施。

Li-Gang Liu, the chief economist for greater China at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, estimates that real borrowing rates for Chinese companies are over 10 percent per year. That is based on an average bank lending rate of around 7 percent, and includes producer price inflation of around 4 percent.

据澳大利亚和新西兰银行集团(Australia and New Zealand Banking Group)的大中华区首席经济学家刘利刚估计,中国企业的实际贷款利率高于10%的年率。这个估计是基于7%左右的平均银行贷款利率,也考虑了约为4%的生产者物价指数。

Many companies in China have turned to even more expensive borrowing from the country’s sprawling shadow banking sector, which includes players as diverse as trust companies, online lenders and loan sharks. But authorities, worried over spiraling amounts of loosely regulated credit, have been seeking to curtail such lenders.

许多中国公司甚至还转向中国庞大的影子银行系统,从中借更贵的贷款,这个系统包括信托公司、在线贷款,以及发放高利贷者等各种各样的玩家。但当局担心这些几乎不受监管的信贷数额过度增长,因此一直在试图限制此类贷款。

“Bank lending is getting more important as shadow banking activities have been cracked down on,” Mr. Liu wrote in an email. “Banks have become more risk averse in lending to trust companies, and shadow banking financing has dropped.”

刘利刚在电子邮件中写道,“由于影子银行的活动已受到打击,银行贷款正变得越来越重要。银行为了规避风险,越来越不愿给信托公司贷款,影子银行的融资已有所下降。”

And then there is the uncertainty that could be introduced by the Fed. Rising interest rates in the United States and falling rates in Asia raise the risk that Asian nations could begin to see a shifting away of foreign currency. In China, there have been signs in recent months that this is taking place, as locals sell renminbi for dollars and move money offshore.

再就是美联储带来的不确定性。美国利率上升加上亚洲利率下降,可能会让亚洲国家看到外币转移风险的上升。中国近几个月来已有迹象表明,这种情况正在发生,当地人在出售人民币,购进美元,将资金转移到境外。

“全文请访问纽约时报中文网,本文发表于纽约时报中文网(http://cn.nytimes.com),版权归纽约时报公司所有。任何单位及个人未经许可,不得擅自转载或翻译。订阅纽约时报中文网新闻电邮:http://nytcn.me/subscription/”

相关文章列表