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中国下调经济增长目标至约7%

更新时间:2015-3-6 8:54:57 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

China Lowers Official Economic Growth Target
中国下调经济增长目标至约7%

HONG KONG — China on Thursday lowered its economic growth target for this year to “approxmately 7 percent,” a significant if widely anticipated development that signals the Communist Party’s determination to shift to more sustainable development.

香港——本周四,中国将今年的经济增长目标下调至“7%左右”。这一转变尽管受到广泛预期,但仍值得一提,它显示了共产党向更可持续的发展转型的决心。

In an annual report to the National People’s Congress, the Party-controlled legislature, Prime Minister Li Keqiang set a target for gross domestic product to rise by around 7 percent this year. That is down from a target of around 7.5 percent that the government set for 2014, which it missed by a whisker. Last year’s actual expansion of 7.4 percent was the country’s slowest since 1990.

总理李克强在全国人民代表大会上向代表们发表每年一度的政府工作报告时,将今年国内生产总值(GDP)的增长目标设定为约7%,低于政府为2014年设定的约7.5%的目标。去年的实际增长为7.4%,略低于目标,是该国1990年以来的最低记录。人大是由中共控制的立法机构。

Under President Xi Jinping, who came to power in late 2012, the Chinese leadership has been trying to reduce the country’s reliance on credit-fuelled investment—a growth model that elevated China to the world’s second biggest economy, after the United States, but one that led to a host of problems including soaring government and corporate debt levels, a property market bubble, wasteful investments and environmental degradation.

自习近平2012年下半年掌权以来,这届政府的领导人已经在努力减轻中国经济对信贷支撑的投资的依赖——这种增长模式推动中国成为了全球第二大经济体,仅次于美国,但却导致了一系列问题,比如政府和企业债务水平飙升,出现了楼市泡沫、投资浪费和环境退化。

In their push to shift the economic model to one more reliant on market forces like consumer demand, China’s leaders have repeatedly signaled this will mean a slower topline growth rate for the economy. In his report on Thursday, Mr. Li reiterated this stance.

中国领导人正在努力推动经济模式的转变,更多地依靠市场力量,比如消费者需求。他们曾多次发出信号,表示这意味着中国经济增速将会放缓。在本周四的报告中,李克强重申了这一立场。

“China’s economic development has entered a new normal,” Mr. Li said, a nod to one of the key slogans of Mr. Xi’s political agenda. “Systemic, institutional and structural problems have become ‘tigers in the road’ holding up development. Without deepening reform and making economic structural adjustments, we will have a difficult time sustaining steady and sound development.”

“我国经济发展进入新常态,”李克强说,他使用了习近平政治议程的一个主要口号。“体制机制弊端和结构性矛盾是‘拦路虎’,不深化改革和调整经济结构,就难以实现平稳健康发展。”

China last lowered its annual G.D.P. target in 2012, reducing it to 7.5 percent, down from the 8 percent level where it had been fixed since 2005. Before 2014, the last time China missed a growth target was 1998, in the wake of the Asian currency crisis, when G.D.P. came in at 7.8 percent against a target of 8 percent.

中国上次下调GDP年增长目标是在2012年,将2005年设定的8%水平降低至7.5%。在2014年之前,中国上一次未能实现增长目标是在1998年,亚洲金融危机之后。当年GDP目标为8%,实际值为7.8%。

In his report, Mr. Li also set a consumer price inflation target of 3 percent, down from last year’s 3.5 percent target—a nod to notable disinflationary forces at work in the economy, where consumer price inflation hit a five-year low in January.

在报告中,李克强把消费价格上涨的目标定为3%,较去年的目标3.5%有所降低。中国经济中存在明显的反通胀因素,今年1月的消费价格指数创下了五年新低。

“Stepping down G.D.P. targets to 7 percent demonstrates the reality of China’s potential current growth, and the reality that the Xi leadership is dealing with the problems that come with reform rather than the problems that come with deferring reform through further monetary permissiveness,” said Daniel H. Rosen, founding partner of the Rhodium Group, an economic research and advisory firm.

“把GDP目标降至7%,不仅体现了中国当前增长潜力的现实状况,也体现了习近平领导班子正在处理改革带来的问题,而不是进一步放任货币政策从而推迟改革所造成的问题,”经济研究和咨询公司荣鼎咨询(Rhodium Group)创始合伙人荣大聂(Daniel H. Rosen)说。

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